Sturm Graz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sturm Graz35.8%fair odds 2.80
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.98
Rennes39.1%fair odds 2.56
Expected goals1.50 – 1.58total 3.07
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rennes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sturm Graz ↓ · Rennes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sturm Graz goals, columns Rennes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.70
- 1–28.6%11.63
- 2–18.2%12.23
- 0–16.7%14.92
- 2–26.4%15.52
- 1–06.3%15.76
- 0–25.7%17.43
- 0–05.2%19.23
- 2–05.2%19.27
- 1–34.5%22.13
Winning margin
6.6%
Sturm Graz by 3+
fair 15.11
10.7%
Sturm Graz by 2
fair 9.36
18.5%
Sturm Graz by 1
fair 5.42
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.98
19.4%
Rennes by 1
fair 5.14
11.8%
Rennes by 2
fair 8.46
7.9%
Rennes by 3+
fair 12.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Sturm Graz goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Rennes goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 35.8% | 36.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Rennes win | 39.1% | 38.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 59.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.2% | 62.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Sturm Graz | 1.50 | 1.52 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Rennes | 1.58 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sturm Graz win35.8%2.80
- Draw25.1%3.98
- Rennes win39.1%2.56
- Double chance Sturm Graz or draw60.9%1.64
- Double chance Sturm Graz or Rennes74.9%1.34
- Double chance Rennes or draw64.2%1.56
- Draw no bet Sturm Graz47.8%2.09
- Draw no bet Rennes52.2%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.3%1.69
- Over 3.536.9%2.71
- Over 4.519.7%5.07
- Under 1.518.2%5.48
- Under 2.540.7%2.46
- Under 3.563.1%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes62.2%1.61
- No37.8%2.64
- Yes and over 2.550.7%1.97
- Sturm Graz win and yes20.3%4.93
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Rennes win and yes22.0%4.55
Team goals
- Sturm Graz over 0.577.7%1.29
- Sturm Graz over 1.544.2%2.26
- Sturm Graz over 2.519.1%5.24
- Rennes over 0.579.3%1.26
- Rennes over 1.546.7%2.14
- Rennes over 2.521.0%4.75
- Sturm Graz clean sheet20.7%4.84
- Rennes clean sheet22.3%4.48
- Sturm Graz win to nil15.5%6.46
- Rennes win to nil17.1%5.83
Handicap
- Sturm Graz −1.517.3%5.78
- Sturm Graz −2.56.6%15.11
- Rennes +1.582.7%1.21
- Rennes +2.593.4%1.07
- Rennes −1.519.7%5.08
- Sturm Graz +1.580.3%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result45.6%
1X2 Brier0.465
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 56.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4646 | 0.6092 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.6% | 39.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.