SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen – 29 Aug 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 29 · 14:30 URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

SV Elversberg

3–2Full time

Bayer Leverkusen

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SV Elversberg. SV Elversberg had ? days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 105 and had to travel 191 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel191 kmRest days? · 105Matches / 14d0 · 0

SV Elversberg22%

Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen55%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.87

SV Elversberg22%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.77

SV Elversberg23%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen55%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.86

SV Elversberg17%

Draw20%

Bayer Leverkusen63%

Expected goals 0.98 – 2.10

SV Elversberg22%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen54%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.80

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 67

Team strength

SV Elversberg

Bayer Leverkusen

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 76

42 Current StrengthIn forecast 79

44 AttackIn forecast 87

37 DefenceIn forecast 79

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SV Elversberg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SV Elversberg

Bayer Leverkusen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 2.05

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

90% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.90 ShotsContext 16.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

37% On target shareContext 35%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

60% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 12%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.71

8.90 Shots allowedContext 14.80

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

2.25 BlocksContext 3.60

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

79% Save rateContext 68%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

384 PassesContext 527

315 Accurate passesContext 463

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.04

9.70 FoulsContext 7.30

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SV Elversberg

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bayer Leverkusen

Rest105 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel191 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SV Elversberg	Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	105Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	191 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SV Elversberg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

20N. Kristof(G)

21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah

8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel

39W. Campbell 40F. Onyeka 25L. Petkov

42David Mokwa

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 17Lucas Vázquez

24Aleix García 6E. Fernández

9Afonso Moreira 10M. Tillman 30I. Maza

14P. Schick

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SV Elversberg Absences are shown before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SV Elversberg-0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bayer Leverkusen+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

SV Elversberg · Home No home games yet this season.

Bayer Leverkusen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	SV Elversberg	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.97
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	SV Elversberg	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	—	2.30
Conceded per game	—	1.80
Match goals	—	4.10	2.97
Over 1.5	—	90%
Over 2.5	—	70%	57%
Over 3.5	—	50%
Both teams scored	—	90%	57%
Clean sheets	—	10%
Failed to score	—	0%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SV Elversberg	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	12.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	SV Elversberg	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	6.67
Corners conceded	3.30	3.89
Match total	9.10	10.56	12.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.60
Opponent cards	2.30	2.50
Match total	3.50	4.10	4.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 67 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.58league 4.00

Red cards0.21league 0.00

Cards 5+34%league 0%

Fouls22.6league 27.0

Penalties0.30league 0.00

Home wins43%league 100%

SV Elversberg1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W6 Dec 25A · SC Paderborn 072–11

Bayer Leverkusen6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

W25 Apr 26A · 1.FC Köln2–12
W22 Nov 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–11
D9 Nov 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
D5 Oct 24H · Holstein Kiel2–22
W8 Apr 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.