Bundesliga Gameweek 3 Sun, Sep 13 · 16:30 URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
SV Elversberg 5th · 6 pts · 2 played
1–2Full time
Bayern München 6th · 4 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SV Elversberg. SV Elversberg had 8.1 days of rest, Bayern München 2.9 and had to travel 351 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel351 kmRest days8.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
SV Elversberg9%
Draw13%
Bayern München77%
Expected goals 0.92 – 2.87
SV Elversberg9%
Draw16%
Bayern München75%
Expected goals 0.73 – 2.44
SV Elversberg9%
Draw13%
Bayern München77%
Expected goals 0.94 – 2.90
SV Elversberg6%
Draw10%
Bayern München84%
Expected goals 0.82 – 3.22
SV Elversberg10%
Draw15%
Bayern München75%
Expected goals 0.89 – 2.68
Over 2.5 73% Both score 57% Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)
19°CLight rain
  • Precipitation 0.1 mm
  • Wind 13 km/h
  • Humidity 71%
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
  • Cards per match 4.3
  • Penalties per match 0.19
  • Matches 99

Team strength

SV ElversbergBayern München
41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
44 AttackIn forecast 96
37 DefenceIn forecast 90
— Form indexContext 75
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SV Elversberg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SV ElversbergBayern München
3.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 3.00
2.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.50
+1.71 Goals minus xGContext -0.50
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.50 ShotsContext 18.00
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
64% On target shareContext 39%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.00
72% Box shareContext 67%
28% ConversionContext 14%
— OffsidesContext 2.00
23.00 Shots allowedContext 7.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
8.00 BlocksContext —
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
40% Save rateContext 80%
41% PossessionIn forecast 71%
328 PassesContext 730
257 Accurate passesContext 643
78% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.37
13.50 FoulsContext 11.00
16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.20
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.64 xGVia Att/Def 2.52
1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49
+1.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.68
100% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.60 ShotsContext 18.30
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.60
43% On target shareContext 42%
8.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.40
61% Box shareContext 65%
20% ConversionContext 18%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.78
11.50 Shots allowedContext 10.90
3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67
3.25 BlocksContext 4.00
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
66% Save rateContext 70%
49% PossessionIn forecast 68%
372 PassesContext 659
301 Accurate passesContext 589
81% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.17
10.80 FoulsContext 7.90
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SV Elversberg
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km427 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 6 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · +3.9 vs expected
  • W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugH · Bayer Leverkusen3–20.9 xPts
Bayern München
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel351 km986 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 75 · 7 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
  • W10 SepH · Bodo/Glimt5–02.5 xPts
  • D5 SepA · FC Schalke 040–02.5 xPts
  • W28 AugH · VfB Stuttgart5–12.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SV Elversberg Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep2.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km351 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways427 km986 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one75.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SV Elversberg Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel
39W. Campbell 40F. Onyeka 25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
Bayern München Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 44J. Stanišić
8T. Bischof 45A. Pavlović
34I. Saibari 17M. Olise 42Lennart Karl
9H. Kane
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SV Elversberg Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • SV Elversberg-0.1 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Bayern München+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SV Elversberg · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.00
Bayern München · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SV ElversbergBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 3.502.50
Conceded per game 2.500.50
Match goals 6.003.00 3.79
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%50% 73%
Over 3.5 100%50%
Both teams scored 100%50% 57%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
SV ElversbergBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 3.503.50
Conceded per game 2.501.20
Match goals 6.004.70 3.79
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 100%80% 73%
Over 3.5 100%80%
Both teams scored 100%60% 57%
Clean sheets 0%40%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games210

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SV ElversbergBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.009.00
Corners conceded8.003.00
Match total12.0012.0011.40
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 1/1
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 1/1
Over 10.550% 1/2100% 1/1
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards2.502.50
Match total4.504.003.28
Over 3.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
SV ElversbergBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.906.00
Corners conceded4.304.11
Match total9.2010.1111.40
Over 8.550% 5/1078% 7/9
Over 9.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 10.520% 2/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.401.10
Opponent cards2.501.80
Match total3.902.903.28
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.15league 3.19
Red cards0.19league 0.12
Cards 5+46%league 19%
Fouls23.1league 22.7
Penalties0.19league 0.12
Home wins34%league 54%
SV Elversberg

No previous matches with this referee.

Bayern München9 with this referee
Record8-0-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W17 Jan 26A · RB Leipzig5–10
  • W25 Oct 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–03
  • W23 Feb 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt4–01
  • W24 Feb 24H · RB Leipzig2–13
  • W20 Dec 23A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

SV Elversberg2 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Bayern München2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 27 · conceded 16
6 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 3 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 32 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
3 5 16-30
5 4 31-45
7 3 46-60
5 61-75
10 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Union Berlin FC Schalke 04 13 SC Freiburg Borussia Mönchengladbach 50 FSV Mainz 05 Eintracht Frankfurt 13 Borussia Dortmund SC Paderborn 07 30 1899 Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart 21 FC Augsburg Bayer Leverkusen 22 1.FC Köln Werder Bremen 11 RB Leipzig Hamburger SV 50 SV Elversberg Bayern München 12