Telstar vs Ajax – 11 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 11 · 13:30 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 15th · 15 pts · 17 played DLDDW

First leg0–2 2–3Full time

Ajax 3rd · 30 pts · 17 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were slight favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 24). Ajax usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Telstar had 21.7 days of rest, Ajax 21.8 and had to travel 19 km.

Away travel19 kmRest days21.7 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0

Telstar27%

Draw26%

Ajax47%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.62

Telstar28%

Draw27%

Ajax46%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.55

Telstar27%

Draw26%

Ajax47%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.62

Telstar21%

Draw24%

Ajax55%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.82

Telstar28%

Draw27%

Ajax46%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.55

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 45

Team strength

Telstar

Ajax

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

24 AttackIn forecast 66

13 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Ajax

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.88

1.59 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.40

71% Scored inContext 94%

18% Clean sheetsContext 24%

12.94 ShotsContext 14.41

4.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.06

34% On target shareContext 42%

8.18 Shots in the boxContext 10.41

62% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.73

15.47 Shots allowedContext 14.24

5.76 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13

4.81 BlocksContext 4.29

4.18 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

72% Save rateContext 73%

44% PossessionIn forecast 57%

356 PassesContext 521

277 Accurate passesContext 450

78% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.01

11.12 FoulsContext 10.65

10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 12.47

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 11.90

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

30% On target shareContext 40%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

58% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.29

16.70 Shots allowedContext 15.30

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

5.44 BlocksContext 4.30

4.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

77% Save rateContext 73%

44% PossessionIn forecast 57%

351 PassesContext 521

269 Accurate passesContext 451

77% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.60 FoulsContext 10.00

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest21.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest21.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel19 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec	21.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	19 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 17N. Rossen 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

9Milan Zonneveld

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-2-1

1V. Jaroš(G)

2Lucas Rosa 15Y. Baas 4K. Itakura 3A. Gaaei

48Sean Steur 6Y. Regeer 18D. Klaassen

11M. Godts 10O. Gloukh

9K. Dolberg

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ajax+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 0.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-4
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.11

Ajax · Away 1.38points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-1
Scored: 2.13
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Ajax
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 A
Heracles	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Twente	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 A
Excelsior	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	D 3–3 A
Heerenveen	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–2 H	D 2–2 A
Groningen	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–3 H	W 3–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 A
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
PEC Zwolle	L 0–2 H	W 3–1 H
Points	15 of 48 · 0.94 per game	27 of 48 · 1.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Telstar wins0 draws1 Ajax wins

Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

10 Aug 2025Ajax2–0Telstar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	1.88
Conceded per game	1.59	1.29
Match goals	2.76	3.18	2.80
Over 1.5	82%	100%
Over 2.5	47%	59%	53%
Over 3.5	35%	41%
Both teams scored	59%	71%	56%
Clean sheets	18%	24%
Failed to score	29%	6%
Games	17	17

	Telstar	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.50	3.30	2.80
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	5.35
Corners conceded	6.56	5.00
Match total	11.31	10.35	10.20
Over 8.5	81% 13/16	59% 10/17
Over 9.5	69% 11/16	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	63% 10/16	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	1.59	2.00
Opponent cards	1.82	1.59
Match total	3.41	3.59	3.57
Over 3.5	41% 7/17	41% 7/17
Over 4.5	35% 6/17	35% 6/17

	Telstar	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	5.10
Corners conceded	7.00	4.30
Match total	10.90	9.40	10.20
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.60	1.40
Match total	4.10	3.30	3.57
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.31league 3.34

Red cards0.13league 0.22

Cards 5+31%league 32%

Fouls19.8league 21.7

Penalties0.31league 0.30

Home wins49%league 46%

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

Ajax4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

L18 Oct 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–24
D14 May 25A · Groningen2–22
W15 Dec 24H · Almere City FC3–01
W12 Aug 23H · Heracles4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.