Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Telstar
16th · 16 pts · 19 played
DDWLD
First leg1–2
0–1Full time
AZ Alkmaar
7th · 29 pts · 19 played
DLWLD
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 23). Absences weigh more on AZ Alkmaar. Telstar had 7.7 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 3.7 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days7.7 · 3.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Telstar33%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar41%
Telstar32%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar41%
Telstar31%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar43%
Telstar26%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar49%
Telstar34%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar40%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 24
Team strength
TelstarAZ Alkmaar
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
24
AttackIn forecast
52
13
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarAZ Alkmaar
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
74%
Scored inContext
95%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.68
ShotsContext
16.05
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.06
Shots in the boxContext
10.68
60%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.58
15.37
Shots allowedContext
12.11
5.84
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
4.67
BlocksContext
3.56
4.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
71%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
352
PassesContext
460
273
Accurate passesContext
384
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.63
FoulsContext
10.11
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
10.79
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
15.70
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
28%
On target shareContext
36%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
55%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
9.20
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
5.00
BlocksContext
2.70
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
78%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
351
PassesContext
495
268
Accurate passesContext
420
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
8.90
FoulsContext
9.10
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel20 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 3.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 122 km | 184 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
23C. Hatenboer
17N. Rossen
11T. Noslin
7S. Hetli
9Milan Zonneveld
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
41J. Zoet(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
20Kasper Boogaard
6P. Koopmeiners
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
33M. Šín
7Weslley Patati
9T. Parrott
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+1.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- AZ Alkmaar-1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 2.20
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Ajax | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Twente | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Groningen | L 0–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–3 H | L 3–4 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–0 A | L 1–5 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 16 of 54 · 0.89 per game | 26 of 54 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Telstar wins0 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025AZ Alkmaar2–1Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.47 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 68% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 74% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 5% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Telstar | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 6.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.17 | 4.16 | |
| Match total | 11.23 | 10.37 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 15/18 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 72% 13/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 61% 11/18 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.53 | 2.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.84 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 3.37 | 3.95 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% 7/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 6/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Telstar | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.00 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.04league 3.37
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+25%league 31%
Fouls21.6league 21.6
Penalties0.08league 0.28
Home wins42%league 45%
Telstar2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Nov 25H · Utrecht1–12
- W30 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–01
AZ AlkmaarNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar19 games · scored 24 · conceded 32
2
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
6
10
76-90
AZ Alkmaar19 games · scored 34 · conceded 32
5
6
0-15
6
4
16-30
9
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
5
8
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
