Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Telstar were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Telstar. Telstar had 6.9 days of rest, Cambuur 6.8 and had to travel 114 km.
Away travel114 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Telstar52%
Draw22%
Cambuur26%
Telstar49%
Draw25%
Cambuur26%
Telstar53%
Draw22%
Cambuur25%
Telstar44%
Draw23%
Cambuur32%
Telstar53%
Draw22%
Cambuur25%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 65
Team strength
Telstar
Cambuur
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
24
AttackIn forecast
22
13
DefenceIn forecast
23
32
Form indexContext
7
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarCambuur
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
4.00
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
67%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.67
ShotsContext
12.75
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
31%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
69%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
18.33
Shots allowedContext
17.75
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
5.00
BlocksContext
4.50
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
64%
Save rateContext
53%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
376
PassesContext
406
303
Accurate passesContext
342
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.00
FoulsContext
8.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.39
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
80%
Scored inContext
67%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
16.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
41%
On target shareContext
29%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
70%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
5%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.83
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
6.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
4.40
BlocksContext
3.50
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
73%
Save rateContext
58%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
355
PassesContext
447
274
Accurate passesContext
371
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.10
FoulsContext
11.17
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
WLL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 3 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Cambuur
LLLL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel114 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Cambuur |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 114 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
2J. Hardeveld
10T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
3G. Alders
27P. Brouwer
7Rui Mendes
11N. Þórisson
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli
14B. van Duijl
4I. Baouf
2D. Bouah
8N. Souren
6J. Amofa
11I. Hamache
10Rafik El Arguioui
15F. Kvam
13N. Binder
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cambuur
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cambuur+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Cambuur · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 5.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Telstar | Cambuur | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 5.00 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 75% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.75 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 1.25 | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Telstar | Cambuur | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.13 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 12.38 | 11.50 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.17 | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 2.45
Red cards0.14league 0.05
Cards 5+26%league 13%
Fouls22.1league 20.5
Penalties0.29league 0.18
Home wins45%league 26%
Telstar2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Mar 26A · Fortuna Sittard4–11
- L25 Oct 25A · Sparta Rotterdam0–12
CambuurNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar3 games · scored 3 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cambuur4 games · scored 4 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Cambuur6 games · scored 5 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
