Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Feyenoord. Telstar had 7 days of rest, Feyenoord 2.8 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Telstar26%
Draw26%
Feyenoord48%
Telstar26%
Draw26%
Feyenoord48%
Telstar25%
Draw25%
Feyenoord49%
Telstar20%
Draw24%
Feyenoord56%
Telstar27%
Draw26%
Feyenoord47%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 45
Team strength
Telstar
Feyenoord
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
24
AttackIn forecast
76
13
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarFeyenoord
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.54
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
2.17
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
62%
Scored inContext
100%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
13.54
ShotsContext
18.54
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.85
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.46
Shots in the boxContext
12.92
60%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.38
Shots allowedContext
9.31
5.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.92
BlocksContext
2.67
4.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
70%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
357
PassesContext
439
279
Accurate passesContext
368
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.38
FoulsContext
9.00
10.92
Fouls sufferedContext
10.15
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
18.30
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
58%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.86
17.80
Shots allowedContext
9.70
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
5.40
BlocksContext
2.33
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
72%
Save rateContext
58%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
344
PassesContext
430
266
Accurate passesContext
364
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.30
FoulsContext
11.80
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
8T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
7S. Hetli
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
2B. Nieuwkoop
28O. Targhalline
27G. Diarra
40L. Valente
8Q. Timber
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Feyenoord-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 2.14
Feyenoord · Away
2.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 2.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.77 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 69% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 0% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Telstar | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 4.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.92 | 7.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 3.42 | |
| Match total | 11.59 | 10.50 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 10/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 8/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 1.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.23 | |
| Match total | 3.31 | 2.69 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 15% 2/13 | |
| Telstar | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 9.60 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.34
Red cards0.27league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 32%
Fouls23.0league 22.1
Penalties0.18league 0.28
Home wins47%league 49%
Telstar1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Aug 25H · FC Volendam2–23
Feyenoord3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Sep 24H · NAC Breda2–02
- D14 Jan 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
- W8 Oct 23A · PEC Zwolle2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar13 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Feyenoord13 games · scored 33 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
9
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 22 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
