Telstar vs NAC Breda – 27 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Feb 27 · 19:00 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 17th · 18 pts · 24 played LLDDL

First leg1–0 3–0Full time

NAC Breda 16th · 22 pts · 24 played DDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Telstar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards NAC Breda. Telstar had 5 days of rest, NAC Breda 6 and had to travel 98 km.

Away travel98 kmRest days5 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Telstar44%

Draw25%

NAC Breda31%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.33

Telstar50%

Draw26%

NAC Breda25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Telstar44%

Draw26%

NAC Breda31%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.32

Telstar36%

Draw26%

NAC Breda38%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.49

Telstar44%

Draw26%

NAC Breda31%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.30

Over 2.5 56% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 95

Team strength

Telstar

NAC Breda

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

24 AttackIn forecast 19

13 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

NAC Breda

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.04

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

75% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.38 ShotsContext 13.04

4.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.35

35% On target shareContext 32%

7.55 Shots in the boxContext 8.17

59% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.30 OffsidesContext 2.06

15.79 Shots allowedContext 12.50

6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.08

4.61 BlocksContext 3.00

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.58

72% Save rateContext 71%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

354 PassesContext 394

273 Accurate passesContext 311

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.29 FoulsContext 11.00

10.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.67

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

90% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.90 ShotsContext 13.70

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

35% On target shareContext 34%

5.63 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

52% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.13

15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

4.33 BlocksContext 3.00

4.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

72% Save rateContext 75%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

343 PassesContext 408

257 Accurate passesContext 321

75% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.60 FoulsContext 9.80

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km122 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NAC Breda

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel98 km310 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	NAC Breda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb	6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	98 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	122 km	310 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 17N. Rossen 23C. Hatenboer 3G. Alders

37Sem van Duijn 19N. Þórisson 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

3-5-2

99D. Bielica(G)

8C. Leemans 15E. Mahmutović 16M. Balard

4B. Kemper 14K. Sowah 90L. Holtby 10M. Nassoh 7C. Brym

19A. Salama 24A. Ayew

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
NAC Breda+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 0.67points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 1-5-6
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

NAC Breda · Away 0.64points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-6
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Telstar	NAC Breda
Feyenoord	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H	W 1–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Excelsior	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Ajax	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 H	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A
Heracles	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Heerenveen	L 2–3 H	D 3–3 A
Groningen	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–3 H	W 2–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Points	15 of 69 · 0.65 per game	22 of 69 · 0.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Telstar wins0 draws0 NAC Breda wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

20 Dec 2025NAC Breda0–1Telstar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.04
Conceded per game	1.71	1.50
Match goals	2.88	2.54	2.94
Over 1.5	83%	63%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	38%	25%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	13%	17%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	24	24

	Telstar	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.70	1.30
Match goals	2.90	2.30	2.94
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.74	5.21
Corners conceded	6.17	3.92
Match total	10.91	9.13	10.25
Over 8.5	78% 18/23	58% 14/24
Over 9.5	65% 15/23	42% 10/24
Over 10.5	57% 13/23	38% 9/24
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.92
Opponent cards	1.67	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.92	3.49
Over 3.5	29% 7/24	54% 13/24
Over 4.5	25% 6/24	42% 10/24

	Telstar	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	6.00
Corners conceded	5.70	3.90
Match total	10.40	9.90	10.25
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.80
Opponent cards	1.60	1.70
Match total	2.60	3.50	3.49
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 95 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.29

Red cards0.12league 0.19

Cards 5+42%league 30%

Fouls23.2league 21.6

Penalties0.31league 0.25

Home wins47%league 44%

Telstar2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L5 Oct 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–22
L15 Aug 25H · PEC Zwolle0–23

NAC Breda5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L6 Feb 26H · Excelsior0–23
D10 Jan 26A · Groningen0–02
L29 Nov 25A · Excelsior0–11
D7 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
W7 Dec 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.