Telstar vs PEC Zwolle – 15 Aug 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Aug 15 · 19:00 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–2Full time

PEC Zwolle 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Telstar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. PEC Zwolle usually keep the ball (50% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Telstar had 5.2 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 5.3 and had to travel 98 km.

Away travel98 kmRest days5.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Telstar47%

Draw26%

PEC Zwolle27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Telstar47%

Draw26%

PEC Zwolle26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Telstar47%

Draw26%

PEC Zwolle27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Telstar39%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Telstar47%

Draw26%

PEC Zwolle26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 66

Team strength

Telstar

PEC Zwolle

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

24 AttackIn forecast 17

13 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

PEC Zwolle

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

— xGVia Att/Def 1.36

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

— Goals minus xGContext +0.14

67% Scored inContext 90%

67% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.33 ShotsContext 14.30

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

29% On target shareContext 34%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

65% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.33

14.33 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

5.00 BlocksContext 3.89

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

83% Save rateContext 73%

37% PossessionIn forecast 51%

298 PassesContext 428

227 Accurate passesContext 353

76% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.07

12.67 FoulsContext 12.50

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 3 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PEC Zwolle

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel98 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug	5.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	98 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	38 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	15.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 21D. Koswal

2J. Hardeveld 17N. Rossen 8T. Owusu 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 7S. Hetli

9Milan Zonneveld

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. de Graaff(G)

2S. Floranus 4A. MacNulty 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

35Jamiro Monteiro 30R. Thomas

22K. de Rooij 25T. Oosting 11D. Mbayo

10Koen Kostons

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

PEC Zwolle Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home No home games yet this season.

PEC Zwolle · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.71
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.71
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	2.00
Corners conceded	8.00	4.00
Match total	18.00	6.00	10.22
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	4.00
Opponent cards	0.00	1.00
Match total	0.00	5.00	2.78
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	4.70
Corners conceded	5.33	3.60
Match total	11.00	8.30	10.22
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.60
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	2.67	3.10	2.78
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 66 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 2.67

Red cards0.12league 0.11

Cards 5+42%league 22%

Fouls23.2league 21.8

Penalties0.30league 0.22

Home wins47%league 78%

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

PEC Zwolle3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W14 May 25A · Willem II2–12
W1 Sep 24H · Heracles3–01
L20 Aug 23A · Twente1–35

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.