Telstar vs Twente – 15 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 15 · 13:30 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 17th · 17 pts · 22 played LDLLD

First leg0–0 1–1Full time

Twente 7th · 34 pts · 22 played DWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were slight favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Telstar had 7 days of rest, Twente 7.8 and had to travel 155 km.

Away travel155 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Telstar24%

Draw23%

Twente52%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.91

Telstar31%

Draw27%

Twente42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

Telstar26%

Draw24%

Twente50%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.85

Telstar18%

Draw21%

Twente60%

Expected goals 1.11 – 2.14

Telstar25%

Draw24%

Twente51%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.83

Over 2.5 61% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsStan Teuben

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 2

Team strength

Telstar

Twente

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

24 AttackIn forecast 41

13 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Twente

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.64

1.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.09

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

73% Scored inContext 77%

14% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.50 ShotsContext 18.50

4.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

34% On target shareContext 35%

7.75 Shots in the boxContext 11.86

59% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.55

15.55 Shots allowedContext 9.73

6.05 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.65

4.48 BlocksContext 3.14

4.36 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

72% Save rateContext 63%

43% PossessionIn forecast 55%

349 PassesContext 464

268 Accurate passesContext 378

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.14 FoulsContext 10.68

10.64 Fouls sufferedContext 9.82

1.27 Yellow cardsContext 1.68

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.53

90% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.80 ShotsContext 19.80

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.10

31% On target shareContext 36%

5.75 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

51% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.75

14.40 Shots allowedContext 9.20

5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

4.22 BlocksContext 3.00

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

75% Save rateContext 70%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

340 PassesContext 472

256 Accurate passesContext 386

75% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.70 FoulsContext 9.40

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km211 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel155 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	211 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 17N. Rossen 3G. Alders

37Sem van Duijn 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

19N. Þórisson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 3R. Pröpper 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

10S. Lammers

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar-2.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Twente+2.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 0.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-6
Scored: 1.55
Conceded: 2.09

Twente · Away 1.36points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-2
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.18

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Twente
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H	W 2–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Excelsior	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Ajax	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A	L 2–3 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 H	D 3–3 A
Heracles	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	W 5–1 A
Heerenveen	L 2–3 H	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Groningen	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–3 H	W 3–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	W 2–0 A	L 0–2 H
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Points	16 of 63 · 0.76 per game	33 of 63 · 1.57 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Telstar wins1 draws0 Twente wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

7 Nov 2025Twente0–0Telstar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	1.64
Conceded per game	1.73	1.09
Match goals	2.91	2.73	3.16
Over 1.5	82%	77%
Over 2.5	50%	41%	61%
Over 3.5	41%	32%
Both teams scored	64%	59%	61%
Clean sheets	14%	27%
Failed to score	27%	23%
Games	22	22

	Telstar	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	0.60
Match goals	2.90	2.20	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.14
Corners conceded	6.24	4.00
Match total	11.24	9.14	10.32
Over 8.5	81% 17/21	43% 9/21
Over 9.5	71% 15/21	33% 7/21
Over 10.5	62% 13/21	33% 7/21
Cards
Cards	1.36	1.82
Opponent cards	1.73	2.09
Match total	3.09	3.91	3.53
Over 3.5	32% 7/22	45% 10/22
Over 4.5	27% 6/22	36% 8/22

	Telstar	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.67
Corners conceded	5.80	4.78
Match total	10.50	10.45	10.32
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	2.90	3.60	3.53
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stan Teuben Netherlands · 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.31

Red cards0.00league 0.20

Cards 5+50%league 31%

Fouls22.5league 21.6

Penalties0.00league 0.25

Home wins50%league 43%

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

Twente1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Nov 25A · FC Volendam1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.