Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. Tondela had 10.1 days of rest, GIL Vicente 10.2 and had to travel 122 km.
Away travel122 kmRest days10.1 · 10.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tondela23%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente49%
Tondela29%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente44%
Tondela23%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente49%
Tondela18%
Draw25%
GIL Vicente56%
Tondela24%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente50%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
Tondela
GIL Vicente
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
16
AttackIn forecast
32
29
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaGIL Vicente
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
41%
Scored inContext
79%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
9.81
ShotsContext
13.71
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
32%
On target shareContext
34%
6.15
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
61%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.90
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.67
Shots allowedContext
9.86
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.77
3.31
BlocksContext
2.52
3.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
72%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
316
PassesContext
365
249
Accurate passesContext
296
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.11
FoulsContext
13.39
11.63
Fouls sufferedContext
14.21
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.00
ShotsContext
13.40
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.56
31%
On target shareContext
37%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
65%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.70
BlocksContext
2.70
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
73%
Save rateContext
55%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
319
PassesContext
395
250
Accurate passesContext
327
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.80
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest10.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km209 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest10.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel122 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr | 10.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 122 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 209 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
2Bebeto
79Hugo Félix
32Juan Rodríguez
10J. Hodge
70M. Moudjatovic
16Rony Lopes
7Pedro Henryque
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
48Espigares
2Zé Carlos
27Agustín Moreira
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
95Santi García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-7
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.21
GIL Vicente · Away
1.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-4
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | L 0–5 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| AVS | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Benfica | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 17 of 78 · 0.65 per game | 45 of 81 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Tondela wins0 draws0 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025GIL Vicente0–1Tondela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 46% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 59% | 21% | |
| Games | 27 | 28 |
| Tondela | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.07 | 9.83 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 13/27 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 11/27 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.52 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 4.74 | 4.92 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 18/27 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 13/27 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Tondela | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.55 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 5.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 4.80
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+78%league 57%
Fouls26.0league 26.9
Penalties0.33league 0.43
Home wins33%league 41%
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L21 Dec 25H · Casa Pia1–22
GIL VicenteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela27 games · scored 19 · conceded 44
5
4
0-15
1
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
10
61-75
2
11
76-90
GIL Vicente28 games · scored 42 · conceded 28
8
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
13
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
10
5
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
