Torino vs AC Milan – 23 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 23 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino

1–2Full time

AC Milan

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Torino. Torino had 91 days of rest, AC Milan 91 and had to travel 125 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel125 kmRest days91 · 91Matches / 14d0 · 0

Torino34%

Draw26%

AC Milan41%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.45

Torino29%

Draw25%

AC Milan45%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.52

Torino32%

Draw25%

AC Milan43%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.50

Torino27%

Draw25%

AC Milan48%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.62

Torino34%

Draw25%

AC Milan40%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.45

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

26°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 56%

Warm

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 42

Team strength

Torino

AC Milan

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

39 AttackIn forecast 72

47 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

AC Milan

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.70

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

26% On target shareContext 28%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

56% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.75

13.10 Shots allowedContext 12.70

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.10 BlocksContext 3.30

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

64% Save rateContext 74%

45% PossessionIn forecast 52%

371 PassesContext 467

304 Accurate passesContext 406

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.30 FoulsContext 10.70

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest91 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest91 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel125 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	91Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May	91Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	125 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26D. Mascardi(G)

15P. Comuzzo 44A. Ismajli 23Saúl Coco

77Alessio Cacciamani 28K. Fitz-Jim 66G. Gineitis 16M. Pedersen

22C. Casadei 10N. Vlašić

18G. Simeone

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

2P. Estupiñán 30A. Jashari 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze

70A. Cissè 8R. Loftus-Cheek

9Gonçalo Ramos

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino+2.1 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
AC Milan-2.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home No home games yet this season.

AC Milan · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Torino wins2 draws5 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.70 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%

21 Mar 2026AC Milan3–2Torino
8 Dec 2025Torino2–3AC Milan
22 Feb 2025Torino2–1AC Milan
17 Aug 2024AC Milan2–2Torino
18 May 2024Torino3–1AC Milan
26 Aug 2023AC Milan4–1Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Torino	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.40	2.74
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.17
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.33
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Torino	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	3.30
Corners conceded	4.56	3.60
Match total	8.23	6.90	9.17
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.90
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	3.30	4.40	3.33
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.86league 3.33

Red cards0.10league 0.00

Cards 5+26%league 0%

Fouls23.5league 23.3

Penalties0.31league 0.00

Home wins52%league 17%

Torino4 with this referee

Record1-3-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 May 26H · Juventus2–21
W5 Apr 26A · Pisa1–00
D8 Nov 25A · Juventus0–01
D7 May 23H · Monza1–12

AC Milan4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L10 May 26H · Atalanta2–33
W18 Jan 26H · Lecce1–01
D24 Oct 25H · Pisa2–21
W27 Sep 24H · Lecce3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.