Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Torino had 9.1 days of rest, AS Roma 4 and had to travel 526 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel526 kmRest days9.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Torino17%
Draw19%
AS Roma64%
Torino22%
Draw24%
AS Roma54%
Torino17%
Draw19%
AS Roma64%
Torino12%
Draw17%
AS Roma71%
Torino18%
Draw20%
AS Roma62%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
Warm
29°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 39%
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 79
Team strength
Torino
AS Roma
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
39
AttackIn forecast
72
47
DefenceIn forecast
75
40
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoAS Roma
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
3.16
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
8.33
ShotsContext
23.67
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.67
36%
On target shareContext
37%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
16.67
70%
Box shareContext
71%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
4.67
17.33
Shots allowedContext
7.33
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.67
BlocksContext
—
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
65%
Save rateContext
78%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
487
PassesContext
606
426
Accurate passesContext
537
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.40
9.33
FoulsContext
10.67
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
0.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
2.22
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.59
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.00
ShotsContext
16.40
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
25%
On target shareContext
40%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
60%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.67
15.70
Shots allowedContext
7.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
4.70
BlocksContext
2.43
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
66%
Save rateContext
78%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
406
PassesContext
544
340
Accurate passesContext
476
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.20
FoulsContext
11.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
LLW
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 3 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
AS Roma
WWWD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel526 km3,751 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 31 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 526 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 3,751 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
20Lucas Perri(G)
29N. Fortini
15P. Comuzzo
23Saúl Coco
5E. Cömert
45R. Belghali
28K. Fitz-Jim
8R. Mandragora
66G. Gineitis
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
26L. Balerdi
23G. Mancini
20N. Molina
61N. Pisilli
4B. Cristante
77Emanuele Lulli
18M. Soulé
21P. Dybala
14D. Malen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AS Roma+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Torino | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Torino wins2 draws7 AS Roma wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets10% · 60%
- 18 Jan 2026Torino0–2AS Roma
- 14 Sep 2025AS Roma0–1Torino
- 25 May 2025Torino0–2AS Roma
- 31 Oct 2024AS Roma1–0Torino
- 26 Feb 2024AS Roma3–2Torino
- 24 Sep 2023Torino1–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.67 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Torino | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.67 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 1.66 | 2.33 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Torino | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 9.20 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.80 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.08league 3.19
Red cards0.23league 0.03
Cards 5+66%league 19%
Fouls25.2league 22.6
Penalties0.19league 0.05
Home wins37%league 41%
Torino4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Mar 26H · Parma4–11
- L7 Jan 26H · Udinese1–21
- D17 Aug 24A · AC Milan2–25
- D13 Apr 24H · Juventus0–03
AS Roma10 with this referee
Record4-0-6
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W17 May 26H · Lazio2–03
- W24 Feb 25H · Monza4–00
- L22 Apr 24H · Bologna1–35
- L29 Oct 23A · Inter0–14
- W4 Jun 23H · Spezia2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino3 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
AS Roma3 games · scored 10 · conceded 1
1
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 25 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
