Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Como usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Torino had 16 days of rest, Como 16.1 and had to travel 136 km.
Away travel136 kmRest days16 · 16.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Torino39%
Draw28%
Como33%
Torino41%
Draw27%
Como32%
Torino39%
Draw28%
Como33%
Torino32%
Draw28%
Como40%
Torino41%
Draw27%
Como32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 7
Team strength
Torino
Como
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
39
AttackIn forecast
72
47
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoComo
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.55
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
55%
Scored inContext
64%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.27
ShotsContext
13.18
4.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.27
Shots in the boxContext
7.36
65%
Box shareContext
55%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.64
Shots allowedContext
10.36
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.73
BlocksContext
3.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
68%
Save rateContext
80%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
360
PassesContext
493
289
Accurate passesContext
426
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.18
FoulsContext
15.55
10.55
Fouls sufferedContext
13.91
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
60%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
65%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.80
BlocksContext
4.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
79%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
358
PassesContext
490
285
Accurate passesContext
420
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.90
FoulsContext
15.70
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel136 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 16.1Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 136 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
5A. Masina
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
32K. Asllani
22C. Casadei
16M. Pedersen
91D. Zapata
26C. Ngonge
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
23M. Perrone
33L. da Cunha
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
7Álvaro Morata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Como+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.20
Como · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bologna | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | D 3–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Parma | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game | 13 of 24 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Torino wins0 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025Como1–0Torino
- 25 Oct 2024Torino1–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 0.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 1.64 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 18% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 45% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Torino | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 7.01 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.55 | 4.82 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Torino | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 7.01 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.80 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.92
Red cards0.29league 0.13
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls25.3league 26.1
Penalties0.29league 0.31
Home wins43%league 36%
Torino4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25H · Genoa2–12
- D6 Apr 25H · Verona1–12
- W24 Jan 25H · Cagliari2–00
- W13 Dec 24A · Empoli1–03
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino11 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Como10 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Como9 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
