Torino vs Lecce – 1 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 1 · 11:30 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino 16th · 23 pts · 22 played WLLLL

1–0Full time

Lecce 17th · 18 pts · 22 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Torino were slight favourites.

Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. Torino had 7.9 days of rest, Lecce 7.7 and had to travel 1,003 km.

Away travel1,003 kmRest days7.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Torino46%

Draw28%

Lecce26%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.00

Torino53%

Draw25%

Lecce22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Torino47%

Draw28%

Lecce25%

Expected goals 1.43 – 0.99

Torino39%

Draw29%

Lecce32%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.12

Torino47%

Draw26%

Lecce27%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.14

Over 2.5 43% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.48
Matches 86

Team strength

Torino

Lecce

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

39 AttackIn forecast 36

47 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

Lecce

0.95 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.59

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 0.71

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

64% Scored inContext 45%

36% Clean sheetsContext 32%

11.64 ShotsContext 9.45

4.23 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.45

36% On target shareContext 24%

7.45 Shots in the boxContext 5.38

65% Box shareContext 54%

8% ConversionContext 6%

1.95 OffsidesContext 1.36

13.09 Shots allowedContext 12.64

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43

3.59 BlocksContext 3.64

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

59% Save rateContext 71%

44% PossessionIn forecast 43%

363 PassesContext 330

287 Accurate passesContext 251

79% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.72

13.59 FoulsContext 12.55

10.73 Fouls sufferedContext 13.45

1.73 Yellow cardsContext 1.82

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 0.69

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 9.50

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 1.67

38% On target shareContext 16%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

64% Box shareContext 55%

8% ConversionContext 5%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.40

11.20 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.50 BlocksContext 4.40

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

57% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 41%

373 PassesContext 317

291 Accurate passesContext 237

78% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.72

14.90 FoulsContext 12.70

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km420 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,003 km1,851 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Jan	7.7Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,003 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	420 km	1,851 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	0 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Paleari(G)

23Saúl Coco 13G. Maripán 35L. Marianucci

20V. Lazaro 22C. Casadei 6E. İlkhan 10N. Vlašić 16M. Pedersen

91D. Zapata 19C. Adams

+13 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 5J. Siebert 44Tiago Gabriel 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani

23R. Sottil 16O. Gandelman 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino-0.9 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Lecce+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home 1.00points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.82

Lecce · Away 0.80points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-6
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Torino	Lecce
Como	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H	L 0–3 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H	L 1–4 A
Udinese	L 1–2 H	L 2–3 A
Verona	W 3–0 A	D 0–0 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 H
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
AC Milan	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Juventus	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Pisa	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Bologna	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 A
Napoli	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Lazio	D 3–3 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Parma	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Fiorentina	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 A
Inter	L 0–5 A	L 0–1 A
Points	23 of 63 · 1.10 per game	15 of 63 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Torino wins1 draws2 Lecce wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.43 Over 2.514% Both scored14% Clean sheets71% · 29%

30 Nov 2025Lecce2–1Torino
18 May 2025Lecce1–0Torino
15 Sep 2024Torino0–0Lecce
16 Feb 2024Torino2–0Lecce
28 Oct 2023Lecce0–1Torino
12 Mar 2023Lecce0–2Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.95	0.59
Conceded per game	1.82	1.32
Match goals	2.77	1.91	2.41
Over 1.5	68%	55%
Over 2.5	59%	32%	43%
Over 3.5	27%	14%
Both teams scored	41%	32%	48%
Clean sheets	36%	32%
Failed to score	36%	55%
Games	22	22

	Torino	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.90	1.30
Match goals	2.90	1.80	2.41
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	43%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.45
Corners conceded	4.20	5.32
Match total	8.00	9.77	8.74
Over 8.5	35% 7/20	77% 17/22
Over 9.5	35% 7/20	64% 14/22
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	41% 9/22
Cards
Cards	1.77	1.91
Opponent cards	1.36	1.59
Match total	3.13	3.50	3.91
Over 3.5	45% 10/22	50% 11/22
Over 4.5	18% 4/22	32% 7/22

	Torino	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	3.90
Corners conceded	3.60	5.50
Match total	7.40	9.40	8.74
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.20	1.30
Match total	2.90	3.60	3.91
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.78

Red cards0.15league 0.17

Cards 5+44%league 36%

Fouls24.8league 25.6

Penalties0.48league 0.31

Home wins38%league 38%

Torino6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 2

D2 May 25H · Venezia1–11
W22 Feb 25H · AC Milan2–11
L9 Nov 24A · Juventus0–23
L29 Sep 24H · Lazio2–32
L26 May 24A · Atalanta0–31

Lecce3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 2

L19 Apr 25H · Como0–33
W31 Jan 25A · Parma3–12
L23 Oct 22A · Bologna0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.