Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sassuolo. Torino had 6.2 days of rest, Sassuolo 5.2 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days6.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Torino39%
Draw29%
Sassuolo32%
Torino43%
Draw27%
Sassuolo31%
Torino38%
Draw29%
Sassuolo32%
Torino32%
Draw29%
Sassuolo38%
Torino40%
Draw27%
Sassuolo32%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimone Galipo
Team strength
Torino
Sassuolo
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
39
AttackIn forecast
41
47
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoSassuolo
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.66
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
69%
Scored inContext
69%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.46
ShotsContext
10.51
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
34%
On target shareContext
35%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.91
63%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.03
13.26
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.91
3.91
BlocksContext
3.49
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
64%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
362
PassesContext
386
290
Accurate passesContext
321
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.54
FoulsContext
11.63
10.37
Fouls sufferedContext
12.66
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.80
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
36%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
53%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.30
BlocksContext
4.10
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
68%
Save rateContext
80%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
361
PassesContext
388
294
Accurate passesContext
329
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.60
FoulsContext
10.90
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km892 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel236 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 2 May | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 892 km | 227 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
23Saúl Coco
35L. Marianucci
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
4M. Prati
20V. Lazaro
92A. Njie
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
6S. Walukiewicz
25W. Coulibaly
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
35L. Lipani
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
7C. Volpato
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sassuolo-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.41points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-7
- Scored
- 1.35
- Conceded
- 1.53
Sassuolo · Away
1.18points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-7
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.24
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Inter | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| AC Milan | L 2–3 AL 2–3 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Parma | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Bologna | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Como | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Points | 38 of 102 · 1.12 per game | 49 of 102 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Torino wins3 draws1 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.71
Over 2.514%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 21 Dec 2025Sassuolo0–1Torino
- 10 Feb 2024Sassuolo1–1Torino
- 6 Nov 2023Torino2–1Sassuolo
- 3 Apr 2023Sassuolo1–1Torino
- 17 Sep 2022Torino0–1Sassuolo
- 23 Jan 2022Torino1–1Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.66 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.49 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 54% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 51% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Torino | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.66 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.69 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 8.35 | 8.45 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 54% 19/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 34% 11/32 | 40% 14/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 10/32 | 26% 9/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.46 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.35 | 4.40 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 49% 17/35 | 63% 22/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 7/35 | 40% 14/35 | |
| Torino | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.30 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.60 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Torino35 games · scored 39 · conceded 58
4
5
0-15
7
12
16-30
5
11
31-45
7
10
46-60
5
12
61-75
11
8
76-90
Sassuolo34 games · scored 42 · conceded 42
8
9
0-15
3
8
16-30
6
4
31-45
10
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
