Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Tottenham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Tottenham had 7.1 days of rest, Bournemouth 7 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Tottenham43%
Draw26%
Bournemouth31%
Tottenham43%
Draw27%
Bournemouth30%
Tottenham43%
Draw26%
Bournemouth31%
Tottenham36%
Draw26%
Bournemouth38%
Tottenham43%
Draw27%
Bournemouth30%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 126
Team strength
Tottenham
Bournemouth
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
56
AttackIn forecast
83
74
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamBournemouth
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.00
ShotsContext
12.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
29%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
79%
Box shareContext
69%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
2.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
100%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
421
PassesContext
373
355
Accurate passesContext
298
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.38
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.00
FoulsContext
11.50
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.20
ShotsContext
11.40
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
34%
On target shareContext
29%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
71%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
4.50
BlocksContext
3.75
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
72%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
310
PassesContext
403
240
Accurate passesContext
328
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.10
FoulsContext
13.50
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bournemouth
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
24D. Spence
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
23Pedro Porro
29P. Sarr
6João Palhinha
30R. Bentancur
22B. Johnson
9Richarlison
20M. Kudus
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
18B. Diakité
15A. Smith
8A. Scott
12T. Adams
24A. Semenyo
16M. Tavernier
7D. Brooks
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Bournemouth · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Tottenham wins1 draws2 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 9 Mar 2025Tottenham2–2Bournemouth
- 5 Dec 2024Bournemouth1–0Tottenham
- 31 Dec 2023Tottenham3–1Bournemouth
- 26 Aug 2023Bournemouth0–2Tottenham
- 15 Apr 2023Tottenham2–3Bournemouth
- 29 Oct 2022Bournemouth2–3Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Tottenham | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 12.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 5.00 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Tottenham | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.89 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.40 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.43
Red cards0.06league 0.14
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls21.6league 22.0
Penalties0.17league 0.24
Home wins50%league 52%
Tottenham11 with this referee
Record5-2-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L15 Jan 25A · Arsenal1–21
- L5 Dec 24A · Bournemouth0–12
- W7 Apr 24H · Nottingham Forest3–12
- W31 Dec 23H · Bournemouth3–13
- D3 Dec 23A · Manchester City3–34
Bournemouth5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Dec 24H · Tottenham1–02
- L31 Dec 23A · Tottenham1–32
- L27 Dec 22A · Chelsea0–20
- W19 Mar 22A · Huddersfield3–03
- L11 Dec 21H · Blackburn0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham2 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Bournemouth2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
