Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Everton. Tottenham had 7.1 days of rest, Everton 6.1 and had to travel 286 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel286 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Tottenham39%
Draw26%
Everton35%
Tottenham39%
Draw26%
Everton35%
Tottenham39%
Draw26%
Everton35%
Tottenham32%
Draw26%
Everton43%
Tottenham38%
Draw26%
Everton36%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 18 km/h
- Humidity 61%
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 124
Team strength
Tottenham
Everton
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
56
AttackIn forecast
61
74
DefenceIn forecast
66
36
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamEverton
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.92
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
0%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.33
ShotsContext
15.67
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
27%
On target shareContext
38%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
59%
Box shareContext
67%
0%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.33
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
5.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
501
PassesContext
383
435
Accurate passesContext
315
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.05
14.33
FoulsContext
8.67
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
12.90
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
30%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.80
Shots allowedContext
15.20
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.10
BlocksContext
5.78
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
62%
Save rateContext
59%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
448
PassesContext
369
381
Accurate passesContext
297
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.30
FoulsContext
11.20
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
LLD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 1 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 6.1Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
6J. van Hecke
14A. Gray
16S. Tonali
30R. Bentancur
22O. Marmoush
18Mateus Fernandes
17Savinho
19D. Solanke
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
4J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner
19T. George
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
45H. Armstrong
22B. Johnson
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Everton+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Everton · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
6 Tottenham wins3 draws1 Everton wins
Goals per game2.20 – 0.70
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 10%
- 24 May 2026Tottenham1–0Everton
- 26 Oct 2025Everton0–3Tottenham
- 19 Jan 2025Everton3–2Tottenham
- 24 Aug 2024Tottenham4–0Everton
- 3 Feb 2024Everton2–2Tottenham
- 23 Dec 2023Tottenham2–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.67 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Tottenham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.30 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 12.66 | 12.00 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Tottenham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 10.11 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.80 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 4.00
Red cards0.11league 0.06
Cards 5+42%league 43%
Fouls22.2league 23.2
Penalties0.26league 0.14
Home wins44%league 34%
Tottenham6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Jan 26A · Bournemouth2–33
- L19 Jan 25A · Everton2–31
- W15 Dec 24A · Southampton5–03
- L10 Nov 24H · Ipswich1–21
- W2 Sep 23A · Burnley5–23
Everton13 with this referee
Record4-6-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L23 Feb 26H · Manchester United0–12
- L20 Sep 25A · Liverpool1–23
- W10 May 25A · Fulham3–10
- D5 Apr 25H · Arsenal1–13
- W19 Jan 25H · Tottenham3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham3 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Everton3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
6
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
