Toulouse vs LE Havre – 19 Sep 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 19 · 19:45 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 17th · 2 pts · 4 played LDLD

3–2Full time

LE Havre 16th · 2 pts · 4 played LDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse were slight favourites.

Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Toulouse. Toulouse had 7 days of rest, LE Havre 7 and had to travel 663 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel663 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Toulouse54%

Draw23%

LE Havre23%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.12

Toulouse53%

Draw24%

LE Havre23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Toulouse54%

Draw23%

LE Havre23%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.08

Toulouse46%

Draw24%

LE Havre30%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.26

Toulouse54%

Draw23%

LE Havre23%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.13

Over 2.5 56% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

24°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 34%

RefereeHakim Ben el Hadj

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 59

Team strength

Toulouse

LE Havre

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

45 AttackIn forecast 20

49 DefenceIn forecast 22

20 Form indexContext 16

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

LE Havre

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.95 xGVia Att/Def 0.63

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.95 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

15.00 ShotsContext 15.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

30% On target shareContext 30%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.75

66% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 3%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.75 BlocksContext 3.75

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

63% Save rateContext 82%

53% PossessionIn forecast 49%

508 PassesContext 396

438 Accurate passesContext 327

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.77

16.50 FoulsContext 14.75

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.70

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

31% On target shareContext 38%

7.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

58% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.80 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

5.00 BlocksContext 3.40

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

67% Save rateContext 83%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

385 PassesContext 372

325 Accurate passesContext 304

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.82

14.80 FoulsContext 14.90

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse LDLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,187 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 2 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

D12 SepA · Lorient2–21.1 xPts
L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts
D29 AugA · Stade Brestois 292–21.3 xPts
L22 AugH · Lyon0–21.3 xPts

LE Havre LDLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel663 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 16 · 2 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

D12 SepH · Angers0–01.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Stade Brestois 291–21.4 xPts
D29 AugA · Lyon1–10.7 xPts
L23 AugH · Monaco0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	663 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,187 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21	20.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

4-4-2

16G. Restes(G)

12C. Tapé 3M. McKenzie 5S. Koumbassa 22R. Messali

37Ilyas Azizi 23C. Cásseres 14N. Sigur 8T. Jørgensen

20C. Tengstedt 13J. Russell-Rowe

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

93G. Gallon(G)

5A. Touba 15A. Seko 23V. Sasso

12E. Jelert 7M. Richardson 26S. Ebonog 20D. Ouziad

25M. Samatta 38R. Fofana

9J. Maja

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
LE Havre+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.50

LE Havre · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	LE Havre
Stade Brestois 29	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 H
Lyon	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Toulouse wins1 draws3 LE Havre wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 33%

15 Feb 2026LE Havre2–1Toulouse
2 Nov 2025Toulouse0–0LE Havre
23 Feb 2025LE Havre1–4Toulouse
15 Sep 2024Toulouse2–0LE Havre
10 Mar 2024LE Havre1–0Toulouse
5 Nov 2023Toulouse1–2LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.75	1.00
Match goals	2.75	1.50	2.94
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	4	4

	Toulouse	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	3.00	2.30	2.94
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	20%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	5.25
Corners conceded	4.50	5.00
Match total	8.75	10.25	9.91
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	100% 4/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	2.00
Opponent cards	1.25	1.00
Match total	2.50	3.00	2.94
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	Toulouse	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.22
Corners conceded	5.40	5.56
Match total	9.10	9.78	9.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.40
Opponent cards	1.10	1.30
Match total	3.30	3.70	2.94
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Hakim Ben el Hadj 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.76league 2.89

Red cards0.10league 0.11

Cards 5+32%league 18%

Fouls25.2league 23.4

Penalties0.17league 0.32

Home wins46%league 32%

Toulouse6 with this referee

Record2-0-4 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 0

L30 Mar 25H · Stade Brestois 292–40
W5 Jan 25A · Lens1–02
W1 Dec 24H · Auxerre2–00
L24 Sep 23A · Lens1–21
L18 Mar 23H · Lille0–22

LE Havre3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L10 Nov 24H · Reims0–31
L14 Apr 24H · Nantes0–13
D29 Oct 23A · Metz0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.