Toulouse
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Toulouse53.2%fair odds 1.88
Draw24.1%fair odds 4.15
LE Havre22.7%fair odds 4.41
Expected goals1.82 – 1.12total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
LE Havre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Toulouse ↓ · LE Havre → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Toulouse goals, columns LE Havre goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.81
- 2–19.8%10.20
- 1–09.0%11.05
- 2–08.8%11.42
- 1–26.0%16.57
- 3–16.0%16.80
- 0–05.9%17.08
- 2–25.5%18.21
- 0–15.3%18.70
- 3–05.3%18.82
Winning margin
13.9%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 7.18
16.4%
Toulouse by 2
fair 6.08
22.8%
Toulouse by 1
fair 4.38
24.1%
Draw
fair 4.15
13.8%
LE Havre by 1
fair 7.24
6.2%
LE Havre by 2
fair 16.06
2.7%
LE Havre by 3+
fair 37.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Toulouse goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LE Havre goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 53.2% | 53.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.9% | +0.2 pp |
| LE Havre win | 22.7% | 22.7% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 57.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 57.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Toulouse | 1.82 | 1.84 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals LE Havre | 1.12 | 1.13 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Toulouse win53.2%1.88
- Draw24.1%4.15
- LE Havre win22.7%4.41
- Double chance Toulouse or draw77.3%1.29
- Double chance Toulouse or LE Havre75.9%1.32
- Double chance LE Havre or draw46.8%2.14
- Draw no bet Toulouse70.1%1.43
- Draw no bet LE Havre29.9%3.34
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.25
- Over 2.556.3%1.78
- Over 3.533.9%2.95
- Over 4.517.5%5.72
- Under 1.520.3%4.94
- Under 2.543.7%2.29
- Under 3.566.1%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.545.7%2.19
- Toulouse win and yes26.4%3.79
- Draw and yes18.3%5.48
- LE Havre win and yes12.4%8.09
Team goals
- Toulouse over 0.583.8%1.19
- Toulouse over 1.554.3%1.84
- Toulouse over 2.527.5%3.64
- LE Havre over 0.567.4%1.48
- LE Havre over 1.530.8%3.24
- LE Havre over 2.510.4%9.65
- Toulouse clean sheet32.6%3.06
- LE Havre clean sheet16.2%6.17
- Toulouse win to nil26.8%3.74
- LE Havre win to nil10.3%9.67
Handicap
- Toulouse −1.530.4%3.29
- Toulouse −2.513.9%7.18
- LE Havre +1.569.6%1.44
- LE Havre +2.586.1%1.16
- LE Havre −1.58.9%11.26
- Toulouse +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored38
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result37.0%
1X2 Brier0.662
Over 2.5 called right57.9%
BTTS called right57.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 45.4% | 63.2% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 56.3% | 16.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 66.2% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.9% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 29 of 38 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6827 | 0.6617 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.2% | 36.8% |
| Favourite won | 48.3% | 44.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 29 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 38 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.