Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 39). Toulouse had 20 days of rest, Lens 19.1 and had to travel 767 km.
Away travel767 kmRest days20 · 19.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Toulouse33%
Draw28%
Lens39%
Toulouse33%
Draw27%
Lens39%
Toulouse33%
Draw28%
Lens40%
Toulouse27%
Draw27%
Lens47%
Toulouse34%
Draw27%
Lens39%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 50
Team strength
Toulouse
Lens
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
45
AttackIn forecast
63
49
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLens
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
75%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.88
ShotsContext
13.56
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.06
32%
On target shareContext
37%
9.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
72%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.75
10.88
Shots allowedContext
12.13
3.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.69
3.73
BlocksContext
4.27
2.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
63%
Save rateContext
76%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
339
PassesContext
438
274
Accurate passesContext
370
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.05
14.06
FoulsContext
12.88
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
11.81
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.50
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
30%
On target shareContext
42%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
73%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.44
9.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.78
BlocksContext
4.00
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
69%
Save rateContext
76%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
335
PassesContext
467
268
Accurate passesContext
399
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.30
FoulsContext
13.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest19.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel767 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 19.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 767 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
19D. Sidibé
45A. Vossah
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
22R. Messali
20Emersonn
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
5A. Bulatović
28A. Thomasson
23S. Abdulhamid
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lens-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.38
Lens · Away
2.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Metz | W 4–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 3–6 H | L 0–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game | 37 of 48 · 2.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Toulouse wins1 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 10 May 2025Toulouse1–1Lens
- 5 Jan 2025Lens0–1Toulouse
- 28 Jan 2024Toulouse0–2Lens
- 24 Sep 2023Lens2–1Toulouse
- 2 May 2023Toulouse0–1Lens
- 28 Oct 2022Lens3–0Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.56 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Toulouse | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.66 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 9/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.32 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Toulouse | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.20 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.68
Red cards0.38league 0.33
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls26.9league 24.1
Penalties0.34league 0.47
Home wins46%league 51%
Toulouse8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W3 Nov 24H · Reims1–00
- W25 Feb 24H · Lille3–12
- L28 Jan 24H · Lens0–23
- D12 Nov 23A · Lille1–14
- D27 May 23H · Auxerre1–11
Lens4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L27 Apr 25H · Auxerre0–45
- L30 Mar 25A · Lille0–13
- W8 Dec 24H · Montpellier2–02
- W28 Jan 24A · Toulouse2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse16 games · scored 24 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Lens16 games · scored 28 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
