Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lille. Toulouse had 8.9 days of rest, Lille 7.8 and had to travel 791 km.
Away travel791 kmRest days8.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Toulouse27%
Draw30%
Lille43%
Toulouse31%
Draw27%
Lille42%
Toulouse27%
Draw30%
Lille43%
Toulouse22%
Draw28%
Lille50%
Toulouse28%
Draw30%
Lille43%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
RefereeHakim Ben El Hadj Salem
Team strength
Toulouse
Lille
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
45
AttackIn forecast
42
49
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLille
1.39
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.61
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
68%
Scored inContext
71%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.68
ShotsContext
13.39
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.73
Shots in the boxContext
9.64
64%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.96
Shots allowedContext
9.43
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.04
BlocksContext
2.54
2.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.35
65%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
372
PassesContext
479
305
Accurate passesContext
408
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.75
FoulsContext
10.79
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.89
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.40
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
49%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.10
10.20
Shots allowedContext
8.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
2.10
BlocksContext
2.78
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
434
PassesContext
469
363
Accurate passesContext
394
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.30
FoulsContext
10.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel791 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Apr | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 791 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
35S. Koumbassa
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
15A. Dønnum
20Emersonn
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
21B. André
6N. Bentaleb
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lille+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.21
Lille · Away
1.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-5
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–3 AL 3–6 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Lorient | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 7–1 A |
| Metz | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 4–2 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 4–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lens | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 37 of 81 · 1.37 per game | 47 of 81 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Toulouse wins1 draws5 Lille wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets0% · 14%
- 14 Sep 2025Lille2–1Toulouse
- 12 Apr 2025Toulouse1–2Lille
- 5 Oct 2024Lille2–1Toulouse
- 25 Feb 2024Toulouse3–1Lille
- 12 Nov 2023Lille1–1Toulouse
- 18 Mar 2023Toulouse0–2Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.39 | 1.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.82 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 43% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Toulouse | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.90 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.54 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 9.25 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.18 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 20/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 14/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Toulouse | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.50 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Toulouse28 games · scored 39 · conceded 35
6
4
0-15
4
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
13
8
76-90
Lille28 games · scored 45 · conceded 34
5
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
5
31-45
7
9
46-60
4
7
61-75
22
6
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
