Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Toulouse had 7.2 days of rest, Lyon 7 and had to travel 368 km.
Away travel368 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Toulouse30%
Draw27%
Lyon43%
Toulouse28%
Draw27%
Lyon46%
Toulouse29%
Draw27%
Lyon44%
Toulouse24%
Draw25%
Lyon51%
Toulouse31%
Draw27%
Lyon42%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 84
Team strength
Toulouse
Lyon
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
45
AttackIn forecast
55
49
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseLyon
1.41
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
69%
Scored inContext
84%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.63
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
33%
On target shareContext
39%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
62%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.94
OffsidesContext
1.95
11.88
Shots allowedContext
11.28
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
3.30
BlocksContext
4.08
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
370
PassesContext
459
304
Accurate passesContext
394
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.84
FoulsContext
12.97
10.91
Fouls sufferedContext
12.97
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
12.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
38%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
50%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.44
BlocksContext
4.14
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
64%
Save rateContext
83%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
393
PassesContext
457
325
Accurate passesContext
395
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.99
13.10
FoulsContext
11.60
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,472 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel368 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 368 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,472 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
23C. Cásseres
45A. Vossah
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
11S. Hidalgo
13J. Russell-Rowe
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
17Afonso Moreira
44Khalis Merah
9Endrick
77R. Yaremchuk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lyon-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.31points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-5
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.44
Lyon · Away
1.44points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Monaco | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Lens | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | L 0–4 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–3 AL 3–6 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Lorient | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 4–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 38 of 93 · 1.23 per game | 60 of 93 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Toulouse wins2 draws4 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 5 Oct 2025Lyon1–2Toulouse
- 18 Jan 2025Lyon0–0Toulouse
- 29 Sep 2024Toulouse1–2Lyon
- 15 Mar 2024Toulouse2–3Lyon
- 10 Dec 2023Lyon3–0Toulouse
- 14 Apr 2023Toulouse1–2Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.41 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.69 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 16% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Toulouse | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.28 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 9.96 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 18/32 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 16/32 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 14/32 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 4.56 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 22/32 | 72% 23/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 15/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Toulouse | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.51 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.90 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.68
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls24.9league 23.6
Penalties0.38league 0.37
Home wins38%league 47%
Toulouse6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L7 Mar 26H · Marseille0–12
- W13 Dec 25A · Paris FC3–01
- D10 May 25H · Lens1–12
- D25 Aug 24A · Nice1–12
- L2 May 23H · Lens0–11
Lyon9 with this referee
Record5-3-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds1
- W16 Mar 25H · LE Havre4–22
- W1 Dec 24H · Nice4–11
- D15 Sep 24A · Lens0–00
- W28 Apr 24H · Monaco3–21
- D27 Aug 23A · Nice0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse32 games · scored 45 · conceded 45
8
5
0-15
4
9
16-30
7
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
15
10
76-90
Lyon32 games · scored 52 · conceded 34
6
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
12
7
31-45
10
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
9
14
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
4
1
0-15
1
7
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
