Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Toulouse had 7.2 days of rest, Marseille 6 and had to travel 320 km.
Away travel320 kmRest days7.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Toulouse36%
Draw27%
Marseille37%
Toulouse31%
Draw27%
Marseille42%
Toulouse36%
Draw27%
Marseille38%
Toulouse29%
Draw26%
Marseille45%
Toulouse37%
Draw27%
Marseille36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 80
Team strength
Toulouse
Marseille
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
45
AttackIn forecast
48
49
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseMarseille
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
67%
Scored inContext
75%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.79
ShotsContext
13.96
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
35%
On target shareContext
39%
9.09
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
66%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.41
10.71
Shots allowedContext
10.17
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.21
3.13
BlocksContext
2.71
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
365
PassesContext
555
298
Accurate passesContext
494
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.94
14.00
FoulsContext
12.50
11.46
Fouls sufferedContext
10.04
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.80
ShotsContext
14.40
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
41%
On target shareContext
38%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
55%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.50
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.10
BlocksContext
2.20
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
72%
Save rateContext
55%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
394
PassesContext
515
325
Accurate passesContext
452
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.50
FoulsContext
13.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,112 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel320 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 320 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,112 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
3M. McKenzie
2R. Nicolaisen
19D. Sidibé
24D. Methalie
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
12W. Kamanzi
10G. Gboho
15A. Dønnum
20Emersonn
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
14Igor Paixão
23P. Højbjerg
19G. Kondogbia
22T. Weah
27Q. Timber
17P. Aubameyang
10M. Greenwood
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Marseille-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Marseille · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-6
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 6–2 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Nice | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | W 5–1 A |
| Lens | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 4–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Lille | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 3–6 H | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game | 42 of 69 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Toulouse wins3 draws4 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.43 – 2.71
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 29 Nov 2025Marseille2–2Toulouse
- 6 Apr 2025Marseille3–2Toulouse
- 31 Aug 2024Toulouse1–3Marseille
- 21 Apr 2024Toulouse2–2Marseille
- 17 Sep 2023Marseille0–0Toulouse
- 19 Feb 2023Toulouse2–3Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 3.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Toulouse | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.79 | 4.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 8.35 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 14/24 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 12/24 | 17% 4/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.01 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 18/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Toulouse | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.30 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 3.70
Red cards0.25league 0.29
Cards 5+38%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 23.9
Penalties0.40league 0.39
Home wins40%league 49%
Toulouse5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Dec 25A · Paris FC3–01
- D10 May 25H · Lens1–12
- D25 Aug 24A · Nice1–12
- L2 May 23H · Lens0–11
- L4 Feb 23A · Paris Saint Germain1–22
Marseille7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W18 Oct 25H · LE Havre6–22
- D19 Jan 25H · Strasbourg1–13
- W3 Nov 24A · Nantes2–11
- W12 May 24H · Lorient3–13
- L5 Apr 24A · Lille1–36
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse24 games · scored 33 · conceded 28
4
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
11
6
76-90
Marseille24 games · scored 51 · conceded 33
6
5
0-15
9
5
16-30
6
3
31-45
7
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
14
12
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 15 · conceded 24
3
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
