Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were clear favourites.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Metz. Toulouse had 14.1 days of rest, Metz 15 and had to travel 710 km.
Away travel710 kmRest days14.1 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Toulouse63%
Draw22%
Metz15%
Toulouse63%
Draw22%
Metz15%
Toulouse62%
Draw22%
Metz15%
Toulouse56%
Draw25%
Metz20%
Toulouse64%
Draw21%
Metz14%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 106
Team strength
Toulouse
Metz
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
45
AttackIn forecast
11
49
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseMetz
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.29
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
86%
Scored inContext
43%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.00
ShotsContext
7.57
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
33%
On target shareContext
25%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.83
71%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.29
Shots allowedContext
14.43
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.71
4.86
BlocksContext
3.00
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
55%
Save rateContext
65%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
332
PassesContext
448
269
Accurate passesContext
389
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.14
FoulsContext
11.00
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.80
ShotsContext
8.10
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
39%
On target shareContext
26%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
76%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.29
13.50
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
4.70
BlocksContext
3.56
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
60%
Save rateContext
65%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
342
PassesContext
393
278
Accurate passesContext
328
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.00
FoulsContext
10.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel710 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 15Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 710 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
19D. Sidibé
24D. Methalie
17A. Francis
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
20Emersonn
9F. Magri
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
38S. Sané
5J. Gbamin
9G. Abuashvili
12Alpha Touré
8B. Traoré
39K. Kouao
14C. Sabaly
10G. Hein
30M. Diallo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Metz-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Metz · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Toulouse wins0 draws0 Metz wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 14 Jan 2024Metz0–1Toulouse
- 1 Oct 2023Toulouse3–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Toulouse | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.57 | 5.43 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 9.29 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 2.14 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Toulouse | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.20 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 2.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 3.71
Red cards0.25league 0.32
Cards 5+48%league 34%
Fouls22.5league 24.4
Penalties0.31league 0.53
Home wins51%league 54%
Toulouse5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Feb 25A · LE Havre4–12
- L26 Nov 23A · Nice0–14
- D17 Sep 23A · Marseille0–05
- L14 Apr 23H · Lyon1–21
- L4 Sep 22A · Clermont Foot0–21
Metz2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 May 24A · Strasbourg1–22
- W27 Nov 21A · Nice1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse7 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Metz7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
10
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
