Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Monaco. Toulouse had 8 days of rest, Monaco 6.3 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days8 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Toulouse26%
Draw25%
Monaco49%
Toulouse31%
Draw27%
Monaco42%
Toulouse26%
Draw25%
Monaco49%
Toulouse20%
Draw23%
Monaco57%
Toulouse27%
Draw24%
Monaco49%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 141
Team strength
Toulouse
Monaco
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
45
AttackIn forecast
45
49
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseMonaco
1.37
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.03
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.36
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
63%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.17
Shots allowedContext
12.93
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.66
3.31
BlocksContext
3.63
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
65%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
365
PassesContext
466
298
Accurate passesContext
392
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.77
FoulsContext
12.63
11.07
Fouls sufferedContext
10.73
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
32%
On target shareContext
41%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
51%
Box shareContext
76%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.00
Shots allowedContext
15.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
4.90
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
62%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
401
PassesContext
430
332
Accurate passesContext
360
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.30
FoulsContext
11.40
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,533 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Monaco
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Apr | 6.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,533 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
23C. Cásseres
45A. Vossah
15A. Dønnum
18Pape Diop
11S. Hidalgo
13J. Russell-Rowe
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
13C. Mawissa
25W. Faes
5J. Kehrer
24S. Adingra
6D. Zakaria
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
31Ansu Fati
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Monaco-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Monaco · Away
1.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-6
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Lille | L 0–4 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–3 AL 3–6 H | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Lorient | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Metz | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | W 5–2 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–4 AL 0–1 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Points | 37 of 87 · 1.28 per game | 47 of 87 · 1.62 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Toulouse wins1 draws4 Monaco wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.43
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets0% · 43%
- 25 Oct 2025Monaco1–0Toulouse
- 7 Mar 2025Toulouse1–1Monaco
- 7 Dec 2024Monaco2–0Toulouse
- 18 Feb 2024Monaco1–2Toulouse
- 20 Dec 2023Toulouse1–2Monaco
- 3 Jun 2023Monaco1–2Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.37 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 3.23 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 63% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 20% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Toulouse | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.37 | 5.03 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 4.03 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.06 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 13/30 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 4.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Toulouse | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.56 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 141 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 3.66
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+29%league 35%
Fouls23.0league 23.7
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins40%league 47%
Toulouse5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L8 Feb 26A · Angers0–12
- D29 Oct 25H · Rennes2–22
- L26 Jan 25H · Montpellier1–21
- L5 Oct 24A · Lille1–22
- D21 Apr 24H · Marseille2–21
Monaco15 with this referee
Record9-2-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W5 Apr 26H · Marseille2–12
- W29 Nov 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–05
- D26 Apr 25A · LE Havre1–10
- L7 Feb 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–40
- L1 Dec 24A · Marseille1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse30 games · scored 41 · conceded 42
8
4
0-15
4
7
16-30
6
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
5
5
61-75
13
10
76-90
Monaco30 games · scored 52 · conceded 45
3
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
9
31-45
11
5
46-60
13
8
61-75
11
12
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
