Toulouse vs Nice – 17 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 17 · 18:00 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 8th · 23 pts · 17 played LDWWL

5–1Full time

Nice 14th · 18 pts · 17 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse were slight favourites.

Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 30). Absences weigh more on Nice. Toulouse had 14.9 days of rest, Nice 14 and had to travel 468 km.

Away travel468 kmRest days14.9 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1

Toulouse49%

Draw26%

Nice25%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.06

Toulouse48%

Draw26%

Nice26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.11

Toulouse47%

Draw27%

Nice26%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.07

Toulouse41%

Draw28%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.19

Toulouse50%

Draw25%

Nice25%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.11

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceGael Angoula

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 28

Team strength

Toulouse

Nice

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

45 AttackIn forecast 26

49 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Nice

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.76

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

71% Scored inContext 76%

35% Clean sheetsContext 12%

11.65 ShotsContext 11.12

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

32% On target shareContext 36%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.94

73% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.18 Shots allowedContext 14.71

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

3.56 BlocksContext 4.47

2.36 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.81

62% Save rateContext 69%

40% PossessionIn forecast 47%

335 PassesContext 418

269 Accurate passesContext 353

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.81

14.18 FoulsContext 12.18

11.59 Fouls sufferedContext 12.12

2.24 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.62

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.40 ShotsContext 11.40

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

31% On target shareContext 30%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

74% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 4%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.63

9.70 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.56 BlocksContext 3.20

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

67% Save rateContext 65%

41% PossessionIn forecast 47%

337 PassesContext 428

270 Accurate passesContext 364

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.66

14.20 FoulsContext 10.90

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel468 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Jan	14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	468 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 19D. Sidibé

15A. Dønnum 18Pape Diop 45A. Vossah 22R. Messali

10G. Gboho 9F. Magri 11S. Hidalgo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31M. Dupé(G)

26M. Bard 36Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga 28A. Bah 92J. Clauss

8M. Sanson 41E. Pereira da Silva 22T. Ndombélé

21I. Jansson 11S. Wahi 20T. Louchet

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+1.7 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Nice-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 1.33points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-3
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.56

Nice · Away 0.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	Nice
Lens	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Paris FC	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Strasbourg	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Marseille	D 2–2 A	L 1–5 H
Angers	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Lorient	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
LE Havre	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 A
Rennes	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
Monaco	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Metz	W 4–0 H	L 1–2 A
Lyon	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 H
Nantes	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Lille	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 3–6 H	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 2–0 H	L 1–4 A
Points	20 of 48 · 1.25 per game	18 of 48 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Toulouse wins4 draws1 Nice wins

Goals per game0.86 – 0.71 Over 2.514% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 29%

16 Aug 2025Nice0–1Toulouse
2 Feb 2025Toulouse1–1Nice
25 Aug 2024Nice1–1Toulouse
3 Mar 2024Toulouse2–1Nice
26 Nov 2023Nice1–0Toulouse
21 May 2023Nice0–0Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.18
Conceded per game	1.29	1.76
Match goals	2.71	2.94	2.64
Over 1.5	65%	76%
Over 2.5	53%	53%	49%
Over 3.5	29%	41%
Both teams scored	41%	65%	53%
Clean sheets	35%	12%
Failed to score	29%	24%
Games	17	17

	Toulouse	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.50
Conceded per game	1.00	2.20
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.64
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.41	4.69
Corners conceded	5.35	5.75
Match total	9.76	10.44	9.30
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	81% 13/16
Over 9.5	65% 11/17	69% 11/16
Over 10.5	53% 9/17	44% 7/16
Cards
Cards	2.35	2.18
Opponent cards	2.12	1.82
Match total	4.47	4.00	4.01
Over 3.5	76% 13/17	59% 10/17
Over 4.5	47% 8/17	35% 6/17

	Toulouse	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.60
Corners conceded	4.50	4.50
Match total	9.30	9.10	9.30
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.60	3.80	4.01
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gael Angoula France · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.04league 3.65

Red cards0.18league 0.34

Cards 5+18%league 36%

Fouls20.2league 24.1

Penalties0.39league 0.46

Home wins50%league 51%

Toulouse5 with this referee

Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Nov 24A · Paris Saint Germain0–32
L29 Sep 24H · Lyon1–22
W28 Apr 24A · Lorient2–13
L11 Feb 24H · Nantes1–22
W1 Oct 23H · Metz3–03

Nice1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D20 Oct 24A · Nantes1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.