Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were clear favourites.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Toulouse. Toulouse had 6.2 days of rest, Paris FC 6.9 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days6.2 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse62%
Draw22%
Paris FC16%
Toulouse62%
Draw22%
Paris FC16%
Toulouse62%
Draw23%
Paris FC16%
Toulouse55%
Draw25%
Paris FC21%
Toulouse63%
Draw22%
Paris FC15%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 84
Team strength
Toulouse
Paris FC
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
45
AttackIn forecast
46
49
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseParis FC
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
68%
Scored inContext
68%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.55
ShotsContext
11.18
4.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
68%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.23
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.59
3.24
BlocksContext
3.55
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
67%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
360
PassesContext
503
294
Accurate passesContext
435
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.18
FoulsContext
11.14
11.82
Fouls sufferedContext
11.23
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.82
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
8.80
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
40%
On target shareContext
33%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
61%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.50
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.40
BlocksContext
3.56
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
69%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
379
PassesContext
494
313
Accurate passesContext
425
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.65
14.50
FoulsContext
11.40
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,240 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Paris FC
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel588 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,240 km | 296 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
19D. Sidibé
24D. Methalie
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
12W. Kamanzi
10G. Gboho
11S. Hidalgo
20Emersonn
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
6Otávio
42D. Coppola
5M. Mbow
7Alimami Gory
93N. Ikoné
18M. Munetsi
33P. Lees-Melou
10I. Kebbal
36C. Immobile
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Paris FC-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-3
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.36
Paris FC · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lens | L 0–3 H | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Metz | W 4–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Lille | L 1–2 A | L 2–4 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 3–6 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 63 · 1.29 per game | 22 of 63 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Toulouse wins0 draws0 Paris FC wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 13 Dec 2025Paris FC0–3Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.95 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 59% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 59% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 32% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Toulouse | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 9.59 | 8.91 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 13/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 11/22 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.68 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 3.59 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 16/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 11/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Toulouse | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.00 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.10 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.64
Red cards0.27league 0.31
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls25.5league 24.1
Penalties0.25league 0.40
Home wins44%league 50%
Toulouse5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Aug 25H · Stade Brestois 292–00
- W3 May 25H · Rennes2–12
- D18 Jan 25A · Lyon0–00
- D15 Jan 23H · Stade Brestois 291–12
- L6 Nov 22H · Monaco0–20
Paris FC3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W18 Jan 26A · Nantes2–13
- L23 Nov 25A · Lille2–41
- W3 Oct 25H · Lorient2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse22 games · scored 32 · conceded 26
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
10
6
76-90
Paris FC22 games · scored 26 · conceded 39
4
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
8
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
10
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
