Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 40). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Toulouse had 6.2 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 8 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days6.2 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse13%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain68%
Toulouse14%
Draw21%
Paris Saint Germain65%
Toulouse13%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain68%
Toulouse9%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain74%
Toulouse14%
Draw21%
Paris Saint Germain65%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 81
Team strength
Toulouse
Paris Saint Germain
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
45
AttackIn forecast
91
49
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseParis Saint Germain
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.14
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
-0.58
100%
Scored inContext
100%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
8.50
ShotsContext
19.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
21%
—
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
—
Box shareContext
52%
18%
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
4.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
6.50
BlocksContext
—
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
100%
Save rateContext
—
46%
PossessionIn forecast
77%
372
PassesContext
861
307
Accurate passesContext
799
82%
Pass accuracyContext
93%
7.22
Team ratingContext
7.14
13.50
FoulsContext
4.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.90
ShotsContext
17.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
40%
On target shareContext
37%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
73%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.43
11.20
Shots allowedContext
7.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.88
4.00
BlocksContext
3.13
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
60%
Save rateContext
79%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
379
PassesContext
639
313
Accurate passesContext
581
83%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.20
12.10
FoulsContext
9.60
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km937 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel588 km685 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 937 km | 685 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.7 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
24D. Methalie
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
23C. Cásseres
77M. Sauer
15A. Dønnum
9F. Magri
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
25Nuno Mendes
4Beraldo
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
87João Neves
29B. Barcola
10M. Dembélé
14D. Doué
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Paris Saint Germain · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Toulouse wins1 draws4 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2025Toulouse0–1Paris Saint Germain
- 22 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain3–0Toulouse
- 12 May 2024Paris Saint Germain1–3Toulouse
- 19 Aug 2023Toulouse1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 4 Feb 2023Paris Saint Germain2–1Toulouse
- 31 Aug 2022Toulouse0–3Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Toulouse | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.00 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Toulouse | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 7.38 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.10 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.43
Red cards0.21league 0.29
Cards 5+23%league 38%
Fouls20.6league 23.6
Penalties0.31league 0.38
Home wins51%league 67%
Toulouse1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Sep 24H · LE Havre2–01
Paris Saint Germain8 with this referee
Record8-0-0
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W23 Feb 25A · Lyon3–21
- W3 Sep 23A · Lyon4–12
- W21 Apr 23A · Angers2–10
- W11 Jan 23H · Angers2–01
- W29 Oct 22H · Estac Troyes4–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Paris Saint Germain2 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
