Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Toulouse were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rennes usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Toulouse had 4.1 days of rest, Rennes 3.2 and had to travel 556 km.
Away travel556 kmRest days4.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Toulouse44%
Draw27%
Rennes29%
Toulouse46%
Draw27%
Rennes28%
Toulouse45%
Draw27%
Rennes28%
Toulouse37%
Draw28%
Rennes35%
Toulouse45%
Draw27%
Rennes28%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Toulouse)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 123
Team strength
Toulouse
Rennes
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
45
AttackIn forecast
63
49
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseRennes
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
78%
Scored inContext
78%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.22
ShotsContext
13.00
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
34%
On target shareContext
34%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
72%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.11
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.88
BlocksContext
4.00
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
63%
Save rateContext
67%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
332
PassesContext
477
266
Accurate passesContext
411
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.44
FoulsContext
12.00
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
13.44
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
34%
10.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
74%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.78
BlocksContext
3.78
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
62%
Save rateContext
65%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
342
PassesContext
465
276
Accurate passesContext
400
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.70
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel556 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 3.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 556 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
17A. Francis
23C. Cásseres
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
15A. Dønnum
9F. Magri
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
39M. Meïté
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Toulouse-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Rennes+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Rennes · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Toulouse wins1 draws1 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 3 May 2025Toulouse2–1Rennes
- 10 Nov 2024Rennes0–2Toulouse
- 13 Apr 2024Rennes1–2Toulouse
- 17 Dec 2023Toulouse0–0Rennes
- 12 Feb 2023Toulouse3–1Rennes
- 12 Nov 2022Rennes2–1Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.89 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 67% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Toulouse | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.89 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 67% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 8.56 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.78 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 5.22 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Toulouse | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.70 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.30 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 123 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 3.81
Red cards0.23league 0.29
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.53
Home wins41%league 54%
Toulouse3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Jan 25H · Montpellier1–21
- L5 Oct 24A · Lille1–22
- D21 Apr 24H · Marseille2–21
Rennes6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds3
- L9 Dec 23H · Monaco1–22
- L5 Nov 23A · Nice0–23
- W27 May 23H · Monaco2–00
- L1 Apr 23H · Lens0–12
- L11 Jan 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Toulouse9 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
Rennes9 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
4
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
