Toulouse vs Stade Brestois 29 – 24 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 16:15 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–0Full time

Stade Brestois 29 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Toulouse had 7.8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7.1 and had to travel 702 km.

Away travel702 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Toulouse41%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2932%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.21

Toulouse41%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2932%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Toulouse41%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2932%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.21

Toulouse34%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2939%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.35

Toulouse41%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2932%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Millot

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 75

Team strength

Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

45 AttackIn forecast 47

49 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.40 ShotsContext 12.10

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

42% On target shareContext 32%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

71% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.40

10.70 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.33 BlocksContext 4.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

56% Save rateContext 49%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

384 PassesContext 435

318 Accurate passesContext 357

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.10 FoulsContext 12.50

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km937 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel702 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Aug	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	702 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	937 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Restes(G)

3M. McKenzie 4C. Cresswell 29J. Canvot

24D. Methalie 23C. Cásseres 77M. Sauer 19D. Sidibé

10G. Gboho 9F. Magri 15A. Dønnum

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1R. Majecki(G)

2B. Locko 26J. Le Cardinal 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 20P. Lees-Melou 23K. Doumbia

17M. Baldé 19L. Ajorque 10R. Del Castillo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home No home games yet this season.

Stade Brestois 29 · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Toulouse wins2 draws4 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game0.83 – 2.33 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

30 Mar 2025Toulouse2–4Stade Brestois 29
22 Sep 2024Stade Brestois 292–0Toulouse
19 May 2024Toulouse0–3Stade Brestois 29
8 Oct 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Toulouse
2 Apr 2023Stade Brestois 293–1Toulouse
15 Jan 2023Toulouse1–1Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	1.00	6.00	2.60
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Toulouse	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	1.00	6.00	2.60
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	2.00
Corners conceded	8.00	2.00
Match total	12.00	4.00	9.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	3.00	3.92
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Toulouse	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	3.80
Corners conceded	4.11	5.90
Match total	8.55	9.70	9.00
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.60
Opponent cards	2.40	1.20
Match total	4.40	3.80	3.92
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Millot France · 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.29

Red cards0.29league 0.36

Cards 5+37%league 43%

Fouls25.5league 23.2

Penalties0.23league 0.29

Home wins40%league 64%

Toulouse4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 May 25H · Rennes2–12
D18 Jan 25A · Lyon0–00
D15 Jan 23H · Stade Brestois 291–12
L6 Nov 22H · Monaco0–20

Stade Brestois 2911 with this referee

Record3-2-6 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L20 Apr 25H · Lens1–31
L2 Mar 25A · Lyon1–21
L5 Jan 25A · Angers0–21
W6 Oct 24H · LE Havre2–04
W7 Apr 24H · Metz4–30

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.