Toulouse
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Toulouse40.5%fair odds 2.47
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.62
Stade Brestois 2931.9%fair odds 3.14
Expected goals1.39 – 1.21total 2.60
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Stade Brestois 29
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Toulouse ↓ · Stade Brestois 29 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Toulouse goals, columns Stade Brestois 29 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.60
- 1–09.7%10.30
- 2–18.7%11.50
- 0–18.3%12.01
- 0–08.1%12.32
- 1–27.5%13.27
- 2–07.2%13.87
- 0–25.4%18.46
- 2–25.2%19.09
- 3–14.0%24.81
Winning margin
7.2%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 13.97
12.2%
Toulouse by 2
fair 8.21
21.2%
Toulouse by 1
fair 4.72
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.62
18.3%
Stade Brestois 29 by 1
fair 5.47
9.2%
Stade Brestois 29 by 2
fair 10.93
4.4%
Stade Brestois 29 by 3+
fair 22.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Toulouse goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Stade Brestois 29 goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 40.5% | 41.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 31.9% | 31.8% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 50.2% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.3% | 54.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Toulouse | 1.39 | 1.44 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 | 1.21 | 1.24 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Toulouse win40.5%2.47
- Draw27.6%3.62
- Stade Brestois 29 win31.9%3.14
- Double chance Toulouse or draw68.1%1.47
- Double chance Toulouse or Stade Brestois 2972.4%1.38
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw59.5%1.68
- Draw no bet Toulouse56.0%1.79
- Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2944.0%2.27
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.573.9%1.35
- Over 2.548.1%2.08
- Over 3.526.3%3.80
- Over 4.512.2%8.19
- Under 1.526.1%3.82
- Under 2.551.9%1.93
- Under 3.573.7%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.3%1.88
- No46.7%2.14
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- Toulouse win and yes18.7%5.35
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Stade Brestois 29 win and yes15.1%6.63
Team goals
- Toulouse over 0.575.1%1.33
- Toulouse over 1.540.5%2.47
- Toulouse over 2.516.4%6.09
- Stade Brestois 29 over 0.570.0%1.43
- Stade Brestois 29 over 1.533.9%2.95
- Stade Brestois 29 over 2.512.2%8.22
- Toulouse clean sheet30.0%3.34
- Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet24.9%4.02
- Toulouse win to nil21.8%4.58
- Stade Brestois 29 win to nil16.8%5.96
Handicap
- Toulouse −1.519.3%5.17
- Toulouse −2.57.2%13.97
- Stade Brestois 29 +1.580.7%1.24
- Stade Brestois 29 +2.592.8%1.08
- Stade Brestois 29 −1.513.6%7.37
- Toulouse +1.586.4%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored14
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result52.8%
1X2 Brier0.404
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right35.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 69.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 75.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 90.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 14 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 14 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.