Trabzonspor vs Besiktas – 14 Dec 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 14 · 17:00 Papara Park, Trabzon

Trabzonspor 2nd · 34 pts · 15 played DDWWW

3–3Full time

Besiktas 5th · 25 pts · 15 played LWDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor had 7 days of rest, Besiktas 6 and had to travel 904 km.

Away travel904 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2

Trabzonspor46%

Draw26%

Besiktas28%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.22

Trabzonspor47%

Draw26%

Besiktas27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Trabzonspor47%

Draw26%

Besiktas27%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.18

Trabzonspor38%

Draw26%

Besiktas35%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.37

Trabzonspor45%

Draw26%

Besiktas28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.18

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Trabzon)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.67
Matches 12

Team strength

Trabzonspor

Besiktas

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

54 AttackIn forecast 60

48 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Trabzonspor

Besiktas

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.73

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.27

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

87% Scored inContext 87%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.73 ShotsContext 15.07

5.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.87

36% On target shareContext 39%

9.79 Shots in the boxContext 10.67

62% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.45 OffsidesContext 2.62

14.27 Shots allowedContext 10.93

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.64

4.21 BlocksContext 2.86

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.62

85% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

403 PassesContext 414

342 Accurate passesContext 343

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.67 FoulsContext 13.53

14.47 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.98

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.20 ShotsContext 14.80

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

39% On target shareContext 41%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

65% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.40 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

4.20 BlocksContext 3.00

3.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

82% Save rateContext 74%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

416 PassesContext 400

356 Accurate passesContext 329

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.70 FoulsContext 13.40

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Trabzonspor

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,227 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Besiktas

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel904 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Trabzonspor	Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Dec	6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	904 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,227 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 44A. Batagov 29S. Saatçı 11O. Tufan

26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli 42Christ Inao Oulaï

70K. Olaigbe 10E. Muçi 22O. Zubkov

99F. da Silva

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

30E. Destanoğlu(G)

53E. Topçu 35Tiago Djaló 3G. de Abreu 25G. Sazdagi

4O. Ndidi

19E. Touré 10O. Kökçü 18V. Černý 7M. Rashica

9T. Abraham

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Trabzonspor Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Besiktas Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Trabzonspor-1.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Besiktas+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Trabzonspor · Home 2.25points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-0
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 0.50

Besiktas · Away 1.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Trabzonspor	Besiktas
Goztepe	W 2–1 A	L 0–3 A
Konyaspor	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	W 4–3 A	W 2–1 H
Alanyaspor	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Galatasaray	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Eyüpspor	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Kayserispor	W 4–0 H	W 4–0 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 4–3 A	W 2–0 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Fenerbahce	L 0–1 A	L 2–3 H
Samsunspor	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Antalyaspor	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 A
Kasimpasa	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Points	31 of 42 · 2.21 per game	25 of 42 · 1.79 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Trabzonspor wins1 draws2 Besiktas wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

15 Feb 2025Besiktas2–1Trabzonspor
15 Sep 2024Trabzonspor1–1Besiktas
4 Feb 2024Besiktas2–0Trabzonspor
17 Sep 2023Trabzonspor3–0Besiktas

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Trabzonspor	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.73
Conceded per game	0.87	1.27
Match goals	2.67	3.00	2.83
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	27%	33%
Both teams scored	53%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	13%	13%
Games	15	15

	Trabzonspor	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	3.40	3.00	2.83
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Trabzonspor	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	4.54	5.79
Corners conceded	4.77	4.64
Match total	9.31	10.43	9.49
Over 8.5	62% 8/13	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	54% 7/13	50% 7/14
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	1.73	2.27
Opponent cards	2.53	2.73
Match total	4.26	5.00	4.73
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	80% 12/15
Over 4.5	33% 5/15	47% 7/15

	Trabzonspor	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.11
Corners conceded	4.00	5.11
Match total	9.00	10.22	9.49
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	2.70	2.80
Match total	4.30	5.00	4.73
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.58league 4.46

Red cards0.17league 0.26

Cards 5+58%league 48%

Fouls25.7league 26.2

Penalties0.67league 0.27

Home wins50%league 34%

Trabzonspor3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D8 Nov 25H · Alanyaspor1–11
W3 Oct 25H · Kayserispor4–00
W27 Apr 25H · Alanyaspor4–33

Besiktas1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W29 Sep 25H · Kocaelispor3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.