Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor had 7 days of rest, Fenerbahce 5 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days7 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2
Trabzonspor35%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce38%
Trabzonspor30%
Draw27%
Fenerbahce43%
Trabzonspor36%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce38%
Trabzonspor29%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce46%
Trabzonspor35%
Draw27%
Fenerbahce38%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 29
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Fenerbahce
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
54
AttackIn forecast
75
48
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporFenerbahce
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
90%
Scored inContext
90%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
15.33
ShotsContext
17.29
5.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.29
37%
On target shareContext
36%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.24
60%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.31
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.19
Shots allowedContext
9.62
4.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.95
3.95
BlocksContext
3.75
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
76%
Save rateContext
79%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
424
PassesContext
474
365
Accurate passesContext
409
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.00
FoulsContext
12.10
13.76
Fouls sufferedContext
13.43
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
100%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.30
ShotsContext
15.50
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
38%
On target shareContext
41%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
57%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.88
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
80%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
464
PassesContext
496
407
Accurate passesContext
427
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.20
FoulsContext
11.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km571 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 571 km | 394 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
14M. Løvik
44A. Batagov
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
19M. Eskihellaç
10E. Muçi
99F. da Silva
30E. Onuachu
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
18M. Müldür
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
5İ. Yüksek
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
21Marco Asensio
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Fenerbahce+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-0
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 0.80
Fenerbahce · Away
2.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-0
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 3–4 A | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 3–3 H | W 3–2 A |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 4–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Galatasaray | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | W 5–2 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 H | W 4–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 4–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 45 of 60 · 2.25 per game | 46 of 60 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Trabzonspor wins0 draws4 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game1.60 – 2.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 14 Sep 2025Fenerbahce1–0Trabzonspor
- 6 Apr 2025Fenerbahce4–1Trabzonspor
- 3 Nov 2024Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
- 17 Mar 2024Trabzonspor2–3Fenerbahce
- 4 Nov 2023Fenerbahce2–3Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 3.14 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.21 | 10.45 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 3.05 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 5.34 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 76% 16/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 11.30 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 4.42
Red cards0.24league 0.23
Cards 5+48%league 47%
Fouls24.5league 25.9
Penalties0.28league 0.27
Home wins28%league 37%
Trabzonspor4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L22 Dec 25A · Genclerbirligi3–42
- W24 Nov 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir4–31
- W18 Oct 25A · Rizespor2–10
- D5 May 25A · Kasimpasa1–12
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Oct 25A · Samsunspor0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor21 games · scored 41 · conceded 23
4
1
0-15
5
7
16-30
7
6
31-45
10
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
11
5
76-90
Fenerbahce21 games · scored 48 · conceded 18
5
4
0-15
8
6
16-30
12
31-45
5
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 24 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
