Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Galatasaray. Trabzonspor had 7 days of rest, Galatasaray 6 and had to travel 904 km.
Away travel904 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Trabzonspor21%
Draw20%
Galatasaray59%
Trabzonspor27%
Draw25%
Galatasaray48%
Trabzonspor21%
Draw20%
Galatasaray59%
Trabzonspor16%
Draw18%
Galatasaray67%
Trabzonspor21%
Draw21%
Galatasaray58%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 21
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
54
AttackIn forecast
57
48
DefenceIn forecast
55
32
Form indexContext
83
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporGalatasaray
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
2.81
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.60
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.00
ShotsContext
24.60
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.40
47%
On target shareContext
34%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
16.80
67%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
1.75
BlocksContext
4.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
81%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
488
PassesContext
486
427
Accurate passesContext
426
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.04
Team ratingContext
7.17
10.60
FoulsContext
11.00
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.25
ShotsContext
20.10
6.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
46%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.70
67%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.89
13.88
Shots allowedContext
8.90
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.22
BlocksContext
3.13
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
76%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
452
PassesContext
493
391
Accurate passesContext
432
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.00
FoulsContext
10.80
15.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
DWLWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,425 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Galatasaray
WWWLW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel904 km6,471 km in 14d
Schedule load22%Moderate
Form 83 · 12 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 904 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,425 km | 6,471 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.8 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
6Fabinho
57M. Kabasakal
70N. Saviolo
7E. Muçi
10Mohamed Salah
9F. Gluda Djú
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
27Rafael Leão
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
21D. Gül
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Galatasaray-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Galatasaray · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Trabzonspor wins1 draws4 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 4 Apr 2026Trabzonspor2–1Galatasaray
- 1 Nov 2025Galatasaray0–0Trabzonspor
- 10 May 2025Trabzonspor0–2Galatasaray
- 16 Dec 2024Galatasaray4–3Trabzonspor
- 21 Jan 2024Trabzonspor1–5Galatasaray
- 19 Aug 2023Galatasaray2–0Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.80 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 7.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Trabzonspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.10 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.40 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.79
Red cards0.19league 0.15
Cards 5+33%league 40%
Fouls25.9league 25.6
Penalties0.38league 0.31
Home wins33%league 44%
TrabzonsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Galatasaray5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Aug 26H · Çorum FK2–21
- W18 Apr 26A · Genclerbirligi2–12
- W14 Mar 26H · Istanbul Basaksehir3–00
- W13 Sep 25A · Eyüpspor2–01
- W24 May 25A · Goztepe2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor5 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Galatasaray5 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
