Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Trabzonspor
3rd · 69 pts · 33 played
DDLDW
0–3Full time
Genclerbirligi
15th · 31 pts · 33 played
LLWLW
Our take
Trabzonspor were clear favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genclerbirligi. Trabzonspor had 8 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 8 and had to travel 594 km.
Away travel594 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Trabzonspor69%
Draw19%
Genclerbirligi12%
Trabzonspor71%
Draw18%
Genclerbirligi11%
Trabzonspor69%
Draw19%
Genclerbirligi12%
Trabzonspor62%
Draw22%
Genclerbirligi16%
Trabzonspor68%
Draw19%
Genclerbirligi12%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 26
Team strength
TrabzonsporGenclerbirligi
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
54
AttackIn forecast
13
48
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporGenclerbirligi
1.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
94%
Scored inContext
61%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
14.67
ShotsContext
10.27
5.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
62%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.16
OffsidesContext
1.97
13.15
Shots allowedContext
13.94
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.61
BlocksContext
3.96
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
76%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
433
PassesContext
317
374
Accurate passesContext
249
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.64
FoulsContext
12.15
13.18
Fouls sufferedContext
13.39
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
100%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.30
ShotsContext
9.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
29%
On target shareContext
28%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
64%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.30
BlocksContext
3.50
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
75%
Save rateContext
78%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
461
PassesContext
358
401
Accurate passesContext
286
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.40
FoulsContext
10.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel594 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 594 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 704 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90 | 90.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
25O. Çevikkan(G)
80Boran Baskan
11O. Tufan
74S. Malkoçoğlu
20Wagner Pina
9A. Nwakaeme
8B. Bouchouari
42Christ Inao Oulaï
99F. da Silva
30E. Onuachu
18M. Nayir
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
23M. Hanousek
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
35O. Ülgün
99C. Çanak
20A. Traoré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.06points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-6-1
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 0.94
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-12
- Scored
- 0.56
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Galatasaray | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A | L 0–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 69 of 96 · 2.16 per game | 28 of 96 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Trabzonspor wins0 draws1 Genclerbirligi wins
Goals per game3.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Dec 2025Genclerbirligi4–3Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.85 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.42 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 52% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 52% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 39% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Trabzonspor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.80 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.84 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.03 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 9.00 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 20/31 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 13/31 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 4.18 | 4.54 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 17/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 9/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Trabzonspor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.10 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.70 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.69league 4.41
Red cards0.23league 0.22
Cards 5+69%league 44%
Fouls25.0league 26.0
Penalties0.35league 0.30
Home wins38%league 42%
Trabzonspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W7 Dec 25A · Goztepe2–14
- L10 May 25H · Galatasaray0–21
Genclerbirligi2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D4 Oct 25H · Alanyaspor2–22
- L23 Aug 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor33 games · scored 61 · conceded 36
7
3
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
10
31-45
15
4
46-60
8
3
61-75
13
7
76-90
Genclerbirligi33 games · scored 33 · conceded 47
4
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
7
13
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
