Trabzonspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Trabzonspor
3rd · 69 pts · 33 played
DDLDW
0–3Full time
Genclerbirligi
15th · 31 pts · 33 played
LLWLW
Trabzonspor69.0%fair odds 1.45
Draw19.0%fair odds 5.27
Genclerbirligi12.0%fair odds 8.31
Expected goals2.26 – 0.84total 3.11
Likeliest score2–011.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Trabzonspor ↓ · Genclerbirligi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Trabzonspor goals, columns Genclerbirligi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.4%8.74
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 1–09.7%10.36
- 1–19.0%11.12
- 3–08.6%11.57
- 3–17.3%13.70
- 0–04.9%20.34
- 4–04.9%20.44
- 4–14.1%24.20
- 2–24.1%24.49
Winning margin
25.3%
Trabzonspor by 3+
fair 3.95
20.7%
Trabzonspor by 2
fair 4.82
22.9%
Trabzonspor by 1
fair 4.36
19.0%
Draw
fair 5.27
8.3%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 12.09
2.9%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 34.68
0.9%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 114.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Trabzonspor goals
10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Genclerbirligi goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 69.0% | 68.2% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 19.0% | 19.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Genclerbirligi win | 12.0% | 12.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 59.0% | +1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 51.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Trabzonspor | 2.26 | 2.22 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 0.84 | 0.84 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Trabzonspor win69.0%1.45
- Draw19.0%5.27
- Genclerbirligi win12.0%8.31
- Double chance Trabzonspor or draw88.0%1.14
- Double chance Trabzonspor or Genclerbirligi81.0%1.23
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw31.0%3.23
- Draw no bet Trabzonspor85.2%1.17
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi14.8%6.74
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.1%1.22
- Over 2.560.1%1.66
- Over 3.537.7%2.65
- Over 4.520.3%4.92
- Under 1.517.9%5.59
- Under 2.539.9%2.51
- Under 3.562.3%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.06
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Trabzonspor win and yes30.9%3.23
- Draw and yes14.1%7.12
- Genclerbirligi win and yes6.6%15.25
Team goals
- Trabzonspor over 0.589.6%1.12
- Trabzonspor over 1.566.1%1.51
- Trabzonspor over 2.539.5%2.53
- Genclerbirligi over 0.557.0%1.75
- Genclerbirligi over 1.520.7%4.82
- Genclerbirligi over 2.55.4%18.50
- Trabzonspor clean sheet43.0%2.33
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet10.4%9.63
- Trabzonspor win to nil38.1%2.63
- Genclerbirligi win to nil5.5%18.28
Handicap
- Trabzonspor −1.546.1%2.17
- Trabzonspor −2.525.3%3.95
- Genclerbirligi +1.553.9%1.85
- Genclerbirligi +2.574.7%1.34
- Genclerbirligi −1.53.8%26.64
- Trabzonspor +1.596.2%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored302
Favourite won51.3%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.587
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right52.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 48 | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 125 | 44.4% | 44.0% |
| 50–60% | 74 | 54.9% | 58.1% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 65.2% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 75.4% | 70.6% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 242 of 302 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5943 | 0.5819 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 52.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 237 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Kayserispor 2–1 Konyaspor35·26·39
- ✓Samsunspor 3–0 Goztepe41·26·33
- ✓Gazişehir Gaziantep 1–2 Istanbul Basaksehir23·23·54
- ✗Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Alanyaspor35·29·36
- ✗Rizespor 2–2 Besiktas31·26·44
- ✗Kocaelispor 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük48·28·24
- ✗Eyüpspor 4–0 Rizespor33·27·40
- ✓Genclerbirligi 3–2 Kasimpasa39·29·33
- ✓Alanyaspor 3–1 Kayserispor47·28·25
- ✓Goztepe 2–1 Gazişehir Gaziantep58·23·19
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 302 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.