Trabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rizespor. Trabzonspor had 5 days of rest, Rizespor 6.3 and had to travel 67 km.
Away travel67 kmRest days5 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Trabzonspor59%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Trabzonspor59%
Draw23%
Rizespor18%
Trabzonspor58%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Trabzonspor51%
Draw25%
Rizespor25%
Trabzonspor57%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Trabzon)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 13
Team strength
Trabzonspor
Rizespor
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
54
AttackIn forecast
22
48
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TrabzonsporRizespor
2.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
92%
Scored inContext
76%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
15.28
ShotsContext
11.84
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
30%
9.58
Shots in the boxContext
6.52
61%
Box shareContext
53%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.64
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
3.57
BlocksContext
4.08
3.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
77%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
440
PassesContext
373
382
Accurate passesContext
303
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.80
FoulsContext
13.16
13.08
Fouls sufferedContext
12.52
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.10
ShotsContext
12.40
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
38%
On target shareContext
37%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
59%
Box shareContext
51%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.10
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.56
BlocksContext
4.20
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
68%
Save rateContext
68%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
495
PassesContext
337
443
Accurate passesContext
269
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.00
FoulsContext
11.70
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Trabzonspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km883 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel67 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Trabzonspor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 6.3Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 67 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 883 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 21.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
14M. Løvik
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
11O. Tufan
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
19M. Eskihellaç
10E. Muçi
99F. da Silva
30E. Onuachu
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
54M. Pala
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
37M. Şahin
6G. Papanikolaou
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
10I. Olawoyin
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
11H. Dervişoğlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Trabzonspor+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rizespor-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Trabzonspor · Home
2.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rizespor · Away
1.08points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-3
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Trabzonspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 HW 4–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A | L 2–5 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 3–4 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 4–3 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Galatasaray | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 51 of 72 · 2.13 per game | 30 of 72 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Trabzonspor wins0 draws3 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 18 Oct 2025Rizespor1–2Trabzonspor
- 13 Apr 2025Trabzonspor2–0Rizespor
- 9 Nov 2024Rizespor3–1Trabzonspor
- 25 Jan 2024Rizespor1–0Trabzonspor
- 26 Aug 2023Trabzonspor2–3Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Trabzonspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.04 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.68 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 52% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 52% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 24% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Trabzonspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.70 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Trabzonspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.87 | 3.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 8.13 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 9/23 | 22% 5/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.72 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.84 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 4.32 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 12/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 7/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Trabzonspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 8.10 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.30 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.15league 4.45
Red cards0.15league 0.21
Cards 5+8%league 45%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.08league 0.27
Home wins38%league 37%
Trabzonspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Feb 26A · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–11
- W11 Aug 25H · Kocaelispor1–02
- D18 May 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–12
Rizespor2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L23 Nov 25H · Fenerbahce2–53
- L28 Sep 25H · Kasimpasa1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Trabzonspor25 games · scored 51 · conceded 29
5
2
0-15
8
9
16-30
10
7
31-45
13
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
11
6
76-90
Rizespor25 games · scored 32 · conceded 35
6
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
9
61-75
9
9
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 24 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
