Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were clear favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente had 2.9 days of rest, ADO Den Haag 6 and had to travel.
Rest days2.9 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 2
Twente76%
Draw15%
ADO Den Haag9%
Twente69%
Draw19%
ADO Den Haag12%
Twente77%
Draw14%
ADO Den Haag9%
Twente70%
Draw18%
ADO Den Haag13%
Twente75%
Draw15%
ADO Den Haag9%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 40
Team strength
Twente
ADO Den Haag
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
41
AttackIn forecast
15
49
DefenceIn forecast
18
58
Form indexContext
7
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisADO Den Haag
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteADO Den Haag
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.00
ShotsContext
10.80
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
33%
On target shareContext
26%
13.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
67%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.80
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.80
5.67
BlocksContext
4.20
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
69%
Save rateContext
64%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
559
PassesContext
428
488
Accurate passesContext
352
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.00
FoulsContext
12.80
7.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
57%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
19.75
ShotsContext
11.71
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.71
35%
On target shareContext
23%
13.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
65%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.71
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.29
4.83
BlocksContext
4.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
59%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
504
PassesContext
432
429
Accurate passesContext
353
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.25
FoulsContext
13.86
7.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
LWWDW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km490 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
ADO Den Haag
LLLDL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 1 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
ADO Den Haag |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 9 Sep | 6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 490 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
4Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
10Y. Taha
7M. Pjaca
9W. Weghorst
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed XI
1K. Nikiéma(G)
15M. Hokke
4M. Waem
3P. Mulder
5J. Jensen-Abbew
2O. Raterink
17J. Hawkins
16F. de Bruin
25J. Kilo
46Y. Eduardo
11E. Rottier
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
ADO Den Haag
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- ADO Den Haag+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
ADO Den Haag · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Twente | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | ADO Den Haag | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Twente | ADO Den Haag | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | ADO Den Haag | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 11.00 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Twente | ADO Den Haag | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.88 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.83 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.86 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 2.64
Red cards0.08league 0.07
Cards 5+28%league 13%
Fouls22.7league 20.9
Penalties0.13league 0.24
Home wins45%league 24%
Twente5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.0.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W10 May 26H · Sparta Rotterdam4–00
- D5 Apr 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
- D17 Aug 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
- W25 Feb 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
- W27 Sep 23H · Vitesse1–01
ADO Den HaagNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente5 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
ADO Den Haag5 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
6
61-75
2
2
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
ADO Den Haag7 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
7
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
