Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Twente76.0%fair odds 1.32
Draw15.3%fair odds 6.53
ADO Den Haag8.7%fair odds 11.53
Expected goals2.63 – 0.80total 3.44
Likeliest score2–011.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Twente ↓ · ADO Den Haag → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Twente goals, columns ADO Den Haag goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%8.96
- 3–09.8%10.21
- 2–19.0%11.16
- 1–08.1%12.32
- 3–17.9%12.71
- 1–17.2%13.95
- 4–06.4%15.52
- 4–15.2%19.32
- 2–23.6%27.77
- 0–03.6%27.93
Winning margin
33.7%
Twente by 3+
fair 2.96
21.4%
Twente by 2
fair 4.67
20.9%
Twente by 1
fair 4.79
15.3%
Draw
fair 6.53
6.1%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 16.35
2.0%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 50.11
0.6%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 178.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
Twente goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
ADO Den Haag goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente win | 76.0% | 75.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 15.3% | 15.9% | -0.6 pp |
| ADO Den Haag win | 8.7% | 9.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.7% | 65.1% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 51.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Twente | 2.63 | 2.56 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Twente win76.0%1.32
- Draw15.3%6.53
- ADO Den Haag win8.7%11.53
- Double chance Twente or draw91.3%1.09
- Double chance Twente or ADO Den Haag84.7%1.18
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw24.0%4.17
- Draw no bet Twente89.8%1.11
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag10.2%9.77
Goals
- Over 0.596.4%1.04
- Over 1.586.1%1.16
- Over 2.566.7%1.50
- Over 3.544.9%2.22
- Over 4.526.2%3.81
- Under 1.513.9%7.18
- Under 2.533.3%3.00
- Under 3.555.1%1.82
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.544.4%2.25
- Twente win and yes34.8%2.87
- Draw and yes11.7%8.52
- ADO Den Haag win and yes5.1%19.76
Team goals
- Twente over 0.592.8%1.08
- Twente over 1.573.9%1.35
- Twente over 2.549.0%2.04
- ADO Den Haag over 0.555.2%1.81
- ADO Den Haag over 1.519.2%5.20
- ADO Den Haag over 2.54.8%20.86
- Twente clean sheet44.8%2.23
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet7.2%13.91
- Twente win to nil41.2%2.43
- ADO Den Haag win to nil3.6%27.71
Handicap
- Twente −1.555.2%1.81
- Twente −2.533.7%2.96
- ADO Den Haag +1.544.8%2.23
- ADO Den Haag +2.566.3%1.51
- ADO Den Haag −1.52.6%39.14
- Twente +1.597.4%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored45
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right82.2%
BTTS called right75.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.6% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 16 | 55.5% | 68.8% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.8% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 21 of 45 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6534 | 0.6647 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| Favourite won | 52.4% | 52.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 21 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Utrecht 3–3 GO Ahead Eagles44·23·33
- ✗ADO Den Haag 2–3 Fortuna Sittard40·25·35
- ✗Telstar 2–2 Cambuur52·22·26
- ✓Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar21·21·58
- ✗Groningen 2–2 Twente29·22·48
- ✓Willem II 0–3 Excelsior26·24·50
- ✓Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven25·21·54
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 45 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.