Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 36). Twente had 7.9 days of rest, Ajax 7.7 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days7.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente36%
Draw26%
Ajax38%
Twente35%
Draw27%
Ajax37%
Twente36%
Draw26%
Ajax38%
Twente29%
Draw26%
Ajax45%
Twente35%
Draw27%
Ajax37%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 77
Team strength
Twente
Ajax
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
41
AttackIn forecast
66
49
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteAjax
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.89
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
67%
Scored inContext
89%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
17.00
ShotsContext
16.56
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.89
37%
On target shareContext
42%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.44
59%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.11
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.56
BlocksContext
3.56
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
57%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
435
PassesContext
534
346
Accurate passesContext
467
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.56
FoulsContext
12.11
11.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
60%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.00
ShotsContext
13.20
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
37%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
58%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.90
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
3.40
BlocksContext
3.70
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
55%
Save rateContext
60%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
433
PassesContext
499
347
Accurate passesContext
432
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.10
FoulsContext
12.00
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 165 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
7M. Pjaca
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Ajax
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
4K. Itakura
2Lucas Rosa
16J. McConnell
8K. Taylor
11M. Godts
10O. Gloukh
7Raúl Moro
25W. Weghorst
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Ajax+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Ajax · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 5–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 11 of 15 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Twente wins1 draws1 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 18 May 2025Ajax2–0Twente
- 10 Nov 2024Twente2–2Ajax
- 17 Sep 2023Twente3–1Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.22 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Twente | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 3.22 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 11.44 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 3.78 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Twente | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.76 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.30 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.45
Red cards0.13league 0.21
Cards 5+45%league 35%
Fouls23.4league 22.5
Penalties0.29league 0.23
Home wins47%league 48%
Twente7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds1
- L16 Mar 25H · Feyenoord2–62
- W23 Nov 24A · Fortuna Sittard2–12
- L6 Oct 24A · Feyenoord1–22
- W17 Sep 24H · Heerenveen2–02
- W13 Jan 24H · AZ Alkmaar2–13
Ajax8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D21 Sep 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–24
- L11 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–33
- W30 Mar 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–03
- W2 Mar 25A · Almere City FC1–00
- D4 Dec 24H · Utrecht2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente9 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Ajax9 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
