Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 34). Absences weigh more on AZ Alkmaar. Twente had 7.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7.2 and had to travel 153 km.
Away travel153 kmRest days7.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente37%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar37%
Twente35%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar37%
Twente36%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar38%
Twente30%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar44%
Twente36%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 42
Team strength
Twente
AZ Alkmaar
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
41
AttackIn forecast
52
49
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteAZ Alkmaar
1.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
69%
Scored inContext
100%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
17.38
ShotsContext
16.46
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.08
35%
On target shareContext
37%
10.92
Shots in the boxContext
10.54
63%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.23
Shots allowedContext
13.31
3.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.23
BlocksContext
4.25
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
60%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
454
PassesContext
460
370
Accurate passesContext
385
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.69
FoulsContext
10.31
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.46
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.54
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.20
ShotsContext
15.70
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
36%
On target shareContext
42%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
64%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.30
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.60
BlocksContext
3.67
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
58%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
461
PassesContext
457
384
Accurate passesContext
383
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.80
FoulsContext
9.50
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km255 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel153 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 255 km | 173 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
7M. Pjaca
9R. van Wolfswinkel
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
10S. Mijnans
6P. Koopmeiners
26K. Smit
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
7Weslley Patati
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- AZ Alkmaar-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.67
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Twente | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Telstar | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Groningen | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Ajax | L 2–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 5–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | L 1–5 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 14 of 33 · 1.27 per game | 20 of 33 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Twente wins0 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 14 May 2025Twente2–3AZ Alkmaar
- 21 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0Twente
- 13 Jan 2024Twente2–1AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.62 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.62 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 77% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 77% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 0% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Twente | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.69 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.46 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 10.46 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 31% 4/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 3/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.62 | |
| Match total | 4.08 | 4.24 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 6/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Twente | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.89 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 3.34
Red cards0.14league 0.21
Cards 5+29%league 31%
Fouls19.7league 22.0
Penalties0.29league 0.27
Home wins50%league 48%
Twente4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L30 Mar 25A · Heracles1–22
- D9 Feb 25A · Heerenveen3–34
- W12 Jan 25H · Willem II6–20
- W1 Dec 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–21
AZ Alkmaar6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W18 Oct 25A · Ajax2–02
- W31 Aug 25A · NAC Breda1–05
- L5 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–13
- D25 Aug 24A · Groningen0–01
- L6 Dec 23H · NEC Nijmegen1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente13 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
6
76-90
AZ Alkmaar13 games · scored 26 · conceded 21
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
7
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
