Twente vs Excelsior – 24 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 24 · 20:00 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 6th · 29 pts · 19 played DWDDW

First leg0–1 0–0Full time

Excelsior 14th · 21 pts · 19 played LWLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were clear favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Twente. Twente had 6.3 days of rest, Excelsior 3.1 and had to travel 168 km.

Away travel168 kmRest days6.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Twente61%

Draw22%

Excelsior18%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.04

Twente60%

Draw23%

Excelsior17%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.93

Twente63%

Draw21%

Excelsior16%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.00

Twente53%

Draw24%

Excelsior23%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.17

Twente60%

Draw22%

Excelsior18%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.00

Over 2.5 60% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 69

Team strength

Twente

Excelsior

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

41 AttackIn forecast 21

49 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

Excelsior

1.53 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.16 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.84

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

79% Scored inContext 79%

21% Clean sheetsContext 16%

18.26 ShotsContext 11.47

6.16 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

34% On target shareContext 34%

11.74 Shots in the boxContext 7.47

64% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 9%

1.56 OffsidesContext 1.23

9.47 Shots allowedContext 16.00

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.16

3.06 BlocksContext 4.74

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.21

61% Save rateContext 68%

55% PossessionIn forecast 45%

462 PassesContext 381

378 Accurate passesContext 297

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.95 FoulsContext 12.89

10.16 Fouls sufferedContext 8.79

1.79 Yellow cardsContext 1.53

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90

-0.92 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

19.40 ShotsContext 11.20

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

31% On target shareContext 34%

13.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

69% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.43

8.90 Shots allowedContext 14.50

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.56 BlocksContext 4.40

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

66% Save rateContext 66%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

487 PassesContext 405

406 Accurate passesContext 323

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.40 FoulsContext 12.20

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km44 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel168 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan	3.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	44 km	162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7.6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22P. Tytoń(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 38M. Bruns

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

9R. van Wolfswinkel

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 5S. Henderikx 4C. Widell 17Nolan Martens

18C. Nadje 20L. Hartjes

11G. de Regt 23I. Yegoian 26M. Jonathans

29M. van Duinen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente-1.6 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Excelsior+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 1.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 1.22

Excelsior · Away 0.89points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-5
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 2.56

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Twente	Excelsior
Heracles	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Feyenoord	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 A	L 1–4 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
FC Volendam	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 A
Telstar	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Groningen	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Ajax	L 2–3 H	W 2–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 3–3 A	L 0–5 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 3–2 H	W 1–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 5–1 A	L 0–1 H
NAC Breda	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Heerenveen	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
Points	29 of 54 · 1.61 per game	18 of 54 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Twente wins0 draws1 Excelsior wins

Goals per game2.33 – 1.00 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

30 Aug 2025Excelsior1–0Twente
10 Feb 2024Excelsior0–3Twente
8 Dec 2023Twente4–2Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.53	1.05
Conceded per game	1.16	1.84
Match goals	2.68	2.89	3.13
Over 1.5	79%	79%
Over 2.5	37%	63%	60%
Over 3.5	26%	26%
Both teams scored	63%	63%	57%
Clean sheets	21%	16%
Failed to score	21%	21%
Games	19	19

	Twente	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	0.80	1.80
Match goals	2.00	3.00	3.13
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	10%	60%	60%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	4.05
Corners conceded	3.79	5.21
Match total	8.68	9.26	10.20
Over 8.5	37% 7/19	63% 12/19
Over 9.5	26% 5/19	37% 7/19
Over 10.5	26% 5/19	26% 5/19
Cards
Cards	1.95	1.68
Opponent cards	2.16	1.42
Match total	4.11	3.10	3.59
Over 3.5	47% 9/19	37% 7/19
Over 4.5	42% 8/19	26% 5/19

	Twente	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.40
Corners conceded	4.10	5.80
Match total	9.40	10.20	10.20
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.40
Match total	4.30	3.30	3.59
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.38

Red cards0.20league 0.21

Cards 5+35%league 31%

Fouls20.0league 21.6

Penalties0.20league 0.28

Home wins36%league 45%

Twente7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D7 Dec 25A · Utrecht1–12
W5 Oct 25H · Heracles2–11
L14 May 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–31
D10 Nov 24H · Ajax2–21
W10 Aug 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–10

Excelsior1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W13 Aug 23A · NEC Nijmegen4–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.