Twente vs FC Volendam – 10 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Apr 10 · 19:00 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 4th · 50 pts · 29 played WWLWW

First leg1–1 2–1Full time

FC Volendam 14th · 28 pts · 29 played WLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were clear favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente had 6 days of rest, FC Volendam 5.2 and had to travel 128 km.

Away travel128 kmRest days6 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Twente73%

Draw17%

FC Volendam10%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.86

Twente67%

Draw20%

FC Volendam13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.83

Twente73%

Draw17%

FC Volendam11%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.86

Twente66%

Draw20%

FC Volendam14%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.96

Twente72%

Draw18%

FC Volendam11%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.83

Over 2.5 66% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.07
Matches 29

Team strength

Twente

FC Volendam

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

41 AttackIn forecast 14

49 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Volendam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

FC Volendam

1.69 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.03

1.07 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.66

1.84 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

79% Scored inContext 62%

24% Clean sheetsContext 7%

17.28 ShotsContext 10.34

6.21 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.48

36% On target shareContext 34%

11.24 Shots in the boxContext 6.55

66% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.03 Shots allowedContext 18.38

3.85 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.24

3.15 BlocksContext 5.52

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.69

66% Save rateContext 75%

55% PossessionIn forecast 45%

460 PassesContext 361

374 Accurate passesContext 287

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.31 FoulsContext 9.31

9.52 Fouls sufferedContext 11.76

1.41 Yellow cardsContext 1.48

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.40 ShotsContext 11.30

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

41% On target shareContext 32%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

69% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.10 Shots allowedContext 19.20

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.70

3.33 BlocksContext 5.40

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.20

74% Save rateContext 78%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

456 PassesContext 364

367 Accurate passesContext 283

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.10 FoulsContext 9.30

8.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

0.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km275 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Volendam

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel128 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	FC Volendam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr	5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	275 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15	15.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 9R. van Wolfswinkel

10S. Lammers

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Volendam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. van Oevelen(G)

32Y. Leliendal 25Luca Blondeau 3M. Amevor 5P. Ugwu

8G. Yah 40R. van Cruijsen

17J. Ideho 99A. Descotte 4J. Bacuna

10B. Kuwas

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Volendam Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
FC Volendam-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 1.79points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-3
Scored: 1.57
Conceded: 1.00

FC Volendam · Away 0.36points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-11
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Twente	FC Volendam
Ajax	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 AW 3–2 H	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Utrecht	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
Feyenoord	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Groningen	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 3–2 HL 0–3 A
Telstar	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Heerenveen	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
NAC Breda	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Excelsior	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Heracles	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 3–3 A	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 5–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A
Points	49 of 84 · 1.75 per game	27 of 84 · 0.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Twente wins1 draws0 FC Volendam wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

22 Nov 2025FC Volendam1–1Twente
3 Sep 2023FC Volendam0–2Twente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.69	1.03
Conceded per game	1.07	1.66
Match goals	2.76	2.69	3.39
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	45%	62%	66%
Over 3.5	28%	21%
Both teams scored	62%	59%	53%
Clean sheets	24%	7%
Failed to score	21%	38%
Games	29	29

	Twente	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.90
Conceded per game	0.90	1.50
Match goals	2.90	2.40	3.39
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.93	3.78
Corners conceded	3.93	6.63
Match total	8.86	10.41	10.29
Over 8.5	46% 13/28	74% 20/27
Over 9.5	32% 9/28	63% 17/27
Over 10.5	29% 8/28	48% 13/27
Cards
Cards	1.52	1.52
Opponent cards	2.03	1.93
Match total	3.55	3.45	3.35
Over 3.5	41% 12/29	41% 12/29
Over 4.5	31% 9/29	28% 8/29

	Twente	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.22	6.33
Match total	9.22	10.33	10.29
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	0.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	2.50	3.60	3.35
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.97league 3.18

Red cards0.21league 0.17

Cards 5+21%league 26%

Fouls22.6league 21.4

Penalties0.07league 0.23

Home wins38%league 45%

Twente1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D10 Jan 26H · PEC Zwolle1–11

FC Volendam1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W27 Sep 25H · PEC Zwolle2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.