Twente vs Feyenoord – 1 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 1 · 13:30 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 6th · 38 pts · 24 played DDWDW

First leg1–1 2–0Full time

Feyenoord 2nd · 48 pts · 24 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Twente. Twente had 7.1 days of rest, Feyenoord 6.8 and had to travel 168 km.

Away travel168 kmRest days7.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Twente40%

Draw25%

Feyenoord34%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.43

Twente37%

Draw27%

Feyenoord35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.32

Twente39%

Draw26%

Feyenoord35%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.42

Twente33%

Draw25%

Feyenoord42%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.60

Twente40%

Draw26%

Feyenoord34%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.35

Over 2.5 57% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 53

Team strength

Twente

Feyenoord

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

41 AttackIn forecast 76

49 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

Feyenoord

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.29

1.08 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

79% Scored inContext 92%

25% Clean sheetsContext 33%

18.00 ShotsContext 17.50

6.42 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.63

36% On target shareContext 38%

11.58 Shots in the boxContext 11.96

65% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.62 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.92 Shots allowedContext 10.25

3.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.17 BlocksContext 2.74

2.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.37

64% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 54%

462 PassesContext 447

376 Accurate passesContext 375

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.46 FoulsContext 9.67

9.71 Fouls sufferedContext 10.71

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

19.90 ShotsContext 15.20

7.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

37% On target shareContext 40%

13.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

67% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.50

9.90 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

3.22 BlocksContext 2.90

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

69% Save rateContext 71%

55% PossessionIn forecast 53%

475 PassesContext 439

386 Accurate passesContext 365

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.92

8.60 FoulsContext 10.50

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km310 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel168 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb	6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	310 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

10S. Lammers

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

5G. Smal 21A. Ahmedhodžić 4T. Watanabe 20M. Deijl

10L. Valente 24T. Kraaijeveld

15J. Bos 7J. Moder 23A. Hadj Moussa

9A. Ueda

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Feyenoord-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 1.83points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-2
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.00

Feyenoord · Away 1.82points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-3
Scored: 2.09
Conceded: 1.27

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Twente	Feyenoord
Groningen	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Telstar	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Heerenveen	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
NAC Breda	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 H
Excelsior	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Heracles	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 6–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 1–0 H	D 3–3 A
FC Volendam	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Ajax	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 3–3 A	L 2–4 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 3–2 H	W 2–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 5–1 A	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Points	37 of 69 · 1.61 per game	47 of 69 · 2.04 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Twente wins2 draws2 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game1.20 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 20%

21 Dec 2025Feyenoord1–1Twente
16 Mar 2025Twente2–6Feyenoord
6 Oct 2024Feyenoord2–1Twente
28 Jan 2024Feyenoord0–0Twente
29 Oct 2023Twente2–1Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	2.29
Conceded per game	1.08	1.38
Match goals	2.71	3.67	2.99
Over 1.5	79%	83%
Over 2.5	42%	67%	57%
Over 3.5	29%	46%
Both teams scored	63%	58%	61%
Clean sheets	25%	33%
Failed to score	21%	8%
Games	24	24

	Twente	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.80
Conceded per game	0.70	1.50
Match goals	2.40	3.30	2.99
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	61%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	7.36
Corners conceded	3.96	3.64
Match total	9.09	11.00	10.30
Over 8.5	43% 10/23	73% 16/22
Over 9.5	30% 7/23	59% 13/22
Over 10.5	30% 7/23	45% 10/22
Cards
Cards	1.71	1.63
Opponent cards	2.04	1.42
Match total	3.75	3.05	3.50
Over 3.5	42% 10/24	38% 9/24
Over 4.5	33% 8/24	21% 5/24

	Twente	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	6.11	6.78
Corners conceded	4.78	3.67
Match total	10.89	10.45	10.30
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.90
Match total	3.10	3.90	3.50
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 53 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.30

Red cards0.15league 0.19

Cards 5+28%league 30%

Fouls22.1league 21.6

Penalties0.26league 0.24

Home wins51%league 44%

Twente8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 1

D30 Jan 26A · NAC Breda2–21
W14 Dec 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–00
D2 Nov 25A · Groningen1–14
L10 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle0–11
W4 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam2–00

Feyenoord1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L9 Nov 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.