Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 19). Twente had 7 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 6 and had to travel 153 km.
Away travel153 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Twente57%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Twente56%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Twente57%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Twente49%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard26%
Twente55%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 86
Team strength
Twente
Fortuna Sittard
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
41
AttackIn forecast
19
49
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteFortuna Sittard
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
50%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
17.67
ShotsContext
12.83
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
34%
On target shareContext
34%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
59%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.33
Shots allowedContext
13.83
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
65%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
446
PassesContext
388
356
Accurate passesContext
305
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.67
FoulsContext
13.00
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.70
ShotsContext
11.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
62%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.00
BlocksContext
3.60
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
61%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
436
PassesContext
367
351
Accurate passesContext
286
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.70
FoulsContext
11.80
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel153 km648 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Sep | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 337 km | 648 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
42D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
18D. Limnios
80R. Fosso
20É. Michut
7K. Peterson
23P. Brittijn
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Twente wins1 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 5 Apr 2025Twente1–1Fortuna Sittard
- 23 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard1–2Twente
- 8 Oct 2023Fortuna Sittard0–3Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.17 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Twente | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.17 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 8.16 | 10.20 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.83 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Twente | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.88 | 10.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.48
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+29%league 37%
Fouls21.5league 22.5
Penalties0.23league 0.19
Home wins42%league 46%
Twente5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 May 25A · Ajax0–22
- L24 Apr 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–32
- W23 Feb 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–01
- D19 Oct 24A · Waalwijk2–22
- W17 Sep 23H · Ajax3–11
Fortuna Sittard3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 May 25A · Almere City FC1–11
- W2 Nov 24H · Heerenveen3–00
- L5 Nov 23A · PEC Zwolle0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente6 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard6 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
3
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
