Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Twente
5th · 53 pts · 30 played
WLWWW
First leg3–3
1–1Full time
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 54 pts · 30 played
WWDWD
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Twente had 15 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 13.3 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days15 · 13.3Matches / 14d0 · 1
Twente48%
Draw23%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Twente45%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Twente48%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen29%
Twente40%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen36%
Twente47%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 58
Team strength
TwenteNEC Nijmegen
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
41
AttackIn forecast
37
49
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteNEC Nijmegen
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
80%
Scored inContext
97%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
17.47
ShotsContext
16.13
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
36%
On target shareContext
41%
11.47
Shots in the boxContext
10.07
66%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.48
9.97
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.97
3.14
BlocksContext
2.46
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
67%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
462
PassesContext
423
376
Accurate passesContext
337
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.23
FoulsContext
11.23
9.37
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.30
ShotsContext
17.30
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
42%
On target shareContext
38%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
68%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.10
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.22
BlocksContext
2.25
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
73%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
449
PassesContext
436
363
Accurate passesContext
351
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.00
FoulsContext
10.50
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
10S. Lammers
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
17B. Nuytinck
14E. Dasa
20N. Lebreton
6D. Nejašmić
3P. Sandler
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- NEC Nijmegen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.87points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-3
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Twente | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Ajax | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Heerenveen | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Excelsior | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AW 5–0 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 5–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 AL 3–5 H |
| Points | 52 of 87 · 1.79 per game | 53 of 87 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Twente wins2 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 18 Oct 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3Twente
- 23 Feb 2025Twente2–0NEC Nijmegen
- 10 Aug 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Twente
- 20 Jan 2024NEC Nijmegen1–0Twente
- 11 Nov 2023Twente3–3NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 4.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 77% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 80% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 3% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Twente | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 9.72 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 13/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 9/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 8/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 12/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 9/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Twente | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 10.00 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.80 | 3.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.16league 3.16
Red cards0.14league 0.17
Cards 5+26%league 26%
Fouls22.0league 21.2
Penalties0.24league 0.22
Home wins48%league 45%
Twente9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W1 Mar 26H · Feyenoord2–00
- D30 Jan 26A · NAC Breda2–21
- W14 Dec 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–00
- D2 Nov 25A · Groningen1–14
- L10 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle0–11
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W14 Mar 26A · PSV Eindhoven3–23
- W7 Feb 26H · Heracles4–10
- L1 Dec 24H · Ajax1–21
- D11 Nov 23A · Twente3–33
- L16 Sep 23A · PSV Eindhoven0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente30 games · scored 51 · conceded 32
4
4
0-15
9
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
14
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
11
7
76-90
NEC Nijmegen30 games · scored 72 · conceded 48
8
5
0-15
9
7
16-30
10
15
31-45
15
9
46-60
14
6
61-75
16
6
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
