Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 33). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (65% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Twente had 7.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.7 and had to travel 130 km.
Away travel130 kmRest days7.1 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente19%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven59%
Twente20%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven56%
Twente19%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven59%
Twente14%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven66%
Twente20%
Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven56%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 36
Team strength
Twente
PSV Eindhoven
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
41
AttackIn forecast
60
49
DefenceIn forecast
64
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwentePSV Eindhoven
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
—
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
—
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
—
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.46
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
21.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.80
35%
On target shareContext
41%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.40
65%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.40
Shots allowedContext
7.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
2.89
BlocksContext
2.00
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
47%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
395
PassesContext
586
312
Accurate passesContext
510
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.41
11.30
FoulsContext
8.90
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
6.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel130 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 130 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 127 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
4M. Kjølø
6R. Zerrouki
8T. Booth
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
22J. Schouten
34I. Saibari
7R. van Bommel
14A. Pléa
5I. Perišić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
No home games yet this season.
PSV Eindhoven · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Twente wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game0.67 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 24 Apr 2025Twente1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 6 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven6–1Twente
- 25 Nov 2023Twente0–3PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 6.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 7.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 6.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 7.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 13.00 | 10.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Twente | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 7.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.78 | 10.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.70 | 3.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.21
Red cards0.25league 0.14
Cards 5+33%league 36%
Fouls22.3league 22.1
Penalties0.22league 0.14
Home wins42%league 57%
Twente3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.0.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–61
- W3 Feb 24H · Waalwijk3–00
- W3 Dec 23A · GO Ahead Eagles3–10
PSV Eindhoven2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Dec 24H · Twente6–10
- W9 Nov 24A · NAC Breda3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
PSV Eindhoven1 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
6
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 34 · conceded 10
6
3
0-15
6
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
