Twente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Twente
5th · 55 pts · 32 played
WWWDD
First leg5–1
4–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
9th · 43 pts · 32 played
WDLLD
Our take
Twente were clear favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente had 7 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Twente64%
Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam15%
Twente60%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam17%
Twente63%
Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam16%
Twente56%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam21%
Twente63%
Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam16%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Enschede)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 36
Team strength
TwenteSparta Rotterdam
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
41
AttackIn forecast
32
49
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TwenteSparta Rotterdam
1.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
81%
Scored inContext
75%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
34%
17.03
ShotsContext
12.66
6.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.03
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
65%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.65
OffsidesContext
1.74
10.50
Shots allowedContext
15.38
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.81
3.40
BlocksContext
4.31
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
67%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
457
PassesContext
389
371
Accurate passesContext
312
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.22
FoulsContext
9.50
9.56
Fouls sufferedContext
10.47
1.34
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.80
ShotsContext
12.90
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
31%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
65%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.20
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.00
BlocksContext
3.90
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
73%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
443
PassesContext
387
354
Accurate passesContext
313
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.20
FoulsContext
11.50
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
0.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Twente
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel168 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Twente |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 305 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Twente
Confirmed XI
22P. Tytoń(G)
39M. Rots
43Ruud Nijstad
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
10S. Lammers
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
6J. Kitolano
8A. Santos
11S. Mito
10Vito van Crooij
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Twente+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Twente · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.25points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-8
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Twente | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Ajax | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–4 AD 3–3 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Feyenoord | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Groningen | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 1–4 AW 1–0 H |
| Heerenveen | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 HL 1–6 A |
| Points | 52 of 93 · 1.68 per game | 43 of 93 · 1.39 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Twente wins2 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 19 Sep 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–5Twente
- 4 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–2Twente
- 17 Aug 2024Twente1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 Dec 2023Sparta Rotterdam2–2Twente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Twente | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.69 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.91 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 44% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 34% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Twente | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Twente | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.81 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 8.81 | 11.23 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 87% 26/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 10/31 | 70% 21/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 8/31 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 1.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.00 | 3.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 12/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 9/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Twente | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 10.30 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 4.40 | 3.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.13
Red cards0.06league 0.18
Cards 5+28%league 26%
Fouls23.3league 21.2
Penalties0.14league 0.21
Home wins44%league 44%
Twente4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D5 Apr 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
- D17 Aug 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
- W25 Feb 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
- W27 Sep 23H · Vitesse1–01
Sparta Rotterdam5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D17 Feb 26H · NEC Nijmegen1–13
- W11 Jan 26H · Heracles2–01
- L24 Nov 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–23
- L26 Oct 24A · Heerenveen0–21
- D17 Aug 24A · Twente1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Twente32 games · scored 54 · conceded 35
5
5
0-15
9
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
15
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
11
8
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam32 games · scored 38 · conceded 55
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
11
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
14
61-75
12
16
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
