Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Twente
5th · 55 pts · 32 played
WWWDD
First leg5–1
4–0Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
9th · 43 pts · 32 played
WDLLD
Twente63.7%fair odds 1.57
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.81
Sparta Rotterdam15.5%fair odds 6.46
Expected goals2.13 – 0.96total 3.09
Likeliest score2–010.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Twente ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Twente goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%9.70
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 1–19.8%10.22
- 1–09.2%10.91
- 3–07.3%13.65
- 3–17.0%14.19
- 0–05.0%19.92
- 2–24.8%20.99
- 1–24.5%22.39
- 4–03.9%25.59
Winning margin
21.2%
Twente by 3+
fair 4.72
19.4%
Twente by 2
fair 5.15
23.1%
Twente by 1
fair 4.33
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.81
10.1%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 9.86
3.9%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 25.34
1.4%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 72.20
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Twente goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente win | 63.7% | 62.6% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 21.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 15.5% | 15.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 56.8% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 53.0% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Twente | 2.13 | 2.03 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 0.96 | 0.93 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Twente win63.7%1.57
- Draw20.8%4.81
- Sparta Rotterdam win15.5%6.46
- Double chance Twente or draw84.5%1.18
- Double chance Twente or Sparta Rotterdam79.2%1.26
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw36.3%2.76
- Draw no bet Twente80.5%1.24
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam19.5%5.12
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.9%1.22
- Over 2.559.8%1.67
- Over 3.537.4%2.67
- Over 4.520.1%4.98
- Under 1.518.1%5.54
- Under 2.540.2%2.49
- Under 3.562.6%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.545.2%2.21
- Twente win and yes30.5%3.28
- Draw and yes15.8%6.34
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes8.7%11.56
Team goals
- Twente over 0.588.2%1.13
- Twente over 1.562.9%1.59
- Twente over 2.535.9%2.78
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.561.8%1.62
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.525.0%4.00
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.57.3%13.63
- Twente clean sheet38.2%2.62
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet11.8%8.44
- Twente win to nil33.2%3.01
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil6.8%14.65
Handicap
- Twente −1.540.6%2.46
- Twente −2.521.2%4.72
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.559.4%1.68
- Sparta Rotterdam +2.578.8%1.27
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.55.3%18.76
- Twente +1.594.7%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored288
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.588
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right61.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 107 | 44.9% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 73 | 55.2% | 49.3% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.3% | 67.6% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 239 of 288 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5891 | 0.5824 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.0% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 239 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 GO Ahead Eagles40·26·34
- ✗AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Twente48·24·27
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Feyenoord23·23·55
- ✓PEC Zwolle 1–0 Heracles63·20·17
- ✓FC Volendam 0–2 Heerenveen33·24·42
- ✗NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Telstar62·20·18
- ✗Ajax 2–2 PSV Eindhoven33·24·43
- ✗Groningen 2–3 Excelsior57·22·21
- ✓Utrecht 2–0 NAC Breda60·22·19
- ✓Heracles 0–2 FC Volendam34·25·41
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 288 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.